Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Yemen y su importancia en la Nueva Geopolitica del Golfo Pérsico
Factor Yemen en la Ecuación de Nueva Geopolitica del Golfo Pérsico
No hace muchos años un teniente retirado de la
Fuerza Aérea Norteamericana diseño un nuevo mapa geopolitico del Medio Oriente
de acuerdo con los intereses geopoliticos de Washington y que más tarde se
utilizaría dentro de lo que se denomino “Iniciativa para un Gran Medio Oriente”
durante el gobierno de George W Bush, con el propósito de ampliar y
redimensionar la presencia norteamericana en la región. Dos aspectos vitales de
este ejercicio cartográfico saltan a la vista: la división de Irak en tres
estados (kurdo al norte, sunni al centro y shiita sureño), ademas de la
aparición de un mapa fragmentado de Arabia Saudita, este ultimo que llama más al
análisis considerando la poderosa alianza Washington-Riyadh que ha perdurado por
mas de 50 años y que en la actualidad se ha visto socavada por suspicacias entre
ambos países a raíz del 11 de Septiembre. Pues bien, lo que ha venido ocurriendo
actualmente en Yemen pudiera ser un factor clave en la ecuación de poder y
re-diseño geopolitico que busca Washington en la región, entre dos potencias
rivales tanto en lo religioso como en lo petrolero: Arabia Saudita e Irán.
En meses recientes se han producido escaramuzas e incursiones por parte de grupos shiitas rebeldes contra la monarquía yemení en territorio oriental saudita con el fin de azuzar a una importante minoría shiita asentada en esta porción de territorio saudita, donde se ubican importantes campos petroleros, y que se ha sospechado pudiera ser impulsada por Irán para desequilibrar a la monarquía de la Casa Al Saud y lograr por parte de Irán la primacía en la región. Ahora la pregunta o incógnita seria si, bajo la óptica de Washington, y ante el viraje que ha cobrado las relaciones norteamericano-sauditas y ante la posibilidad de perder primacía ante la monarquía saudita y tomando en cuenta la ubicación de las mayores reservas de crudo mundiales en este país, cabria la posibilidad de una alianza tras bastidores Teheran-Washington bajo la cubierta de combatir a presuntos miembros de Al Qaeda para desplazar a la monarquía saudita ante el progresivo alejamiento estratégico y en materia petrolera que ha mostrado este país en los últimos meses frente a Estados Unidos. Yemen pudiera ser una clave ante la neo estrategia desplegada y profesada por los demócratas de Barack Obama y Zbigniew Brzezinski de utilizar un país bisagra para lograr cambiar el status quo del país objetivo y de esta forma consolidar su hegemonía perdida en el Reino de Arabia Saudita. Ya Irak fue un fracaso a todas luces mientras que con Irán el juego esta trancado hasta los momentos. Resta esperar el curso de los acontecimientos en las próximas semanas.
En meses recientes se han producido escaramuzas e incursiones por parte de grupos shiitas rebeldes contra la monarquía yemení en territorio oriental saudita con el fin de azuzar a una importante minoría shiita asentada en esta porción de territorio saudita, donde se ubican importantes campos petroleros, y que se ha sospechado pudiera ser impulsada por Irán para desequilibrar a la monarquía de la Casa Al Saud y lograr por parte de Irán la primacía en la región. Ahora la pregunta o incógnita seria si, bajo la óptica de Washington, y ante el viraje que ha cobrado las relaciones norteamericano-sauditas y ante la posibilidad de perder primacía ante la monarquía saudita y tomando en cuenta la ubicación de las mayores reservas de crudo mundiales en este país, cabria la posibilidad de una alianza tras bastidores Teheran-Washington bajo la cubierta de combatir a presuntos miembros de Al Qaeda para desplazar a la monarquía saudita ante el progresivo alejamiento estratégico y en materia petrolera que ha mostrado este país en los últimos meses frente a Estados Unidos. Yemen pudiera ser una clave ante la neo estrategia desplegada y profesada por los demócratas de Barack Obama y Zbigniew Brzezinski de utilizar un país bisagra para lograr cambiar el status quo del país objetivo y de esta forma consolidar su hegemonía perdida en el Reino de Arabia Saudita. Ya Irak fue un fracaso a todas luces mientras que con Irán el juego esta trancado hasta los momentos. Resta esperar el curso de los acontecimientos en las próximas semanas.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Friday, January 11, 2013
Monday, January 7, 2013
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Russia once again top oil producer in 2012
Recently, it was released latest data that showed that as for the end of 2012, Russia kept its number one position as worldwide oil producer ahead of Saudi Arabia, with a 10.2 barrels per day production mostly on a monthly basis, which reaffirms its relevant roe in the world energy scenario still, despite many negatve opinions about its presumably decaying amount of oil reserves (est. 70 billions of barrels more or less). Aside from this fact, the main question is if Russia would keep using this as a political and geopolitical tool to influence Europe? What about of the OPEC counterbalance to russian weight in world oil and gas? Will there be enough oil and gas for Russia to keep its say in the global power play arena? Because one thing is certain: energy is the main tool that is reinforcing russian power around the globe, and its internal economy. And from my point of view, an interesting clash will come in the foreseeable future: the one between Russia and Saudi Arabia, if the russians dont comply to the OPEC and saudis dictates when the markets require, given the saudis spare capacity (aroound 2 MMBPD), and another geopolitical factor that the House Al Saud could activate if it keeps feeing threatened b Russia: the islamic wahabism in Chechnya and Daguetan, with the support of saudis.
So these are the implications for Russia maintaining the world top position as oil producer.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Russia the big winner in Eurasia
It seems that after all the grandiose strategy designed by the behind the curtains strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski of the Obama administration to take over Eurasia and all its natural resorces, none of this has worked since the United States is entangled between all the fiasco that has been first of all the Af-Pak strategy, and then all the situation that is shaking the Middle East, focusing on Syria and Iran specifically, with no positive results at all. Meanwhile Russia is taking all the wins from this disastrous strategy, leveraging on its seemingly never ending gas and oil resources, despite many pessimistic forecasts by so called experts on russian oil reserves on the fact that in few years the main big fields of Russia (Samotlor aand Vankor for example) could be reaching their peaks, a thing that we are far away to prove for now. Russia is repositioning itself on the whole eurasian scenario, offering gas to all the central asian former soviet republics, which after flirting with Washington, they are realizing that they cant live without russian assistance and help (military, economics, etc), alongside the fact that together with te central asian republics, the baltics one and the caspian ones too, whether they accept it r not, they remain at the helm and the mercy of the Kremlin, GAZPROM, ROSNEFT, and the silovikys lead by Mr Putin. Not even the so called color revolutions worked in Ukraine, Georgia, Kirguiztan to change the prorussian direction those republics were taking designed by Washington. And as the corolary for this argument there is the Eurasian Union, proposed last year by Mr Putin, as a customs agreement to involve all these countries in the russian sphere of influence starting first as a customs bloc and then in the long term that could become an important geopolitical bloc alongside institutions like the Shanghai Organization, lead too by Russia. So my argument is that Russia so far is the big winner in the struggle to conquer and control Eurasia (meaning eurasian geopolitical space all that encompasses Central Asia, the Caspian, the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the Middle East), mainly by its still standing huge energy resources.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Lebanon is poised to become the next new El Dorado for the natural gas business, as the whole world specialized media on energy issues are widely celebrating first allegedly huge gas fields discoveries that might rival those found either in Israel or in Cyprus, which needless to say, have almost vanished from world media after first gas off shore fields were discovered hardly two years ago or maybe less, projecting the Mediterranean basin as a new Caspian that could balance and give power to a reshuffling of the world energy geopolitics, so far too centered on conflictive zones such as the Persian Guf, the Arabian Peninsula, and so on. But one question comes to mind when Lebanon adds up to all these new mediterranean gas fields discoveries that have been so fanfared by world media, and is the fact that if the Mediterranean basin could be an alternative to the mighty monopoly sustained by countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, and the rest of the natgas world heavyweights, counting for sure with all the political support from Washington and the gas and oil lobby, as well as from Western Europe, desiring once and for all to unchain itself from Moscow almost never ending gas dependence, and which place Lebanon could play in the energy power politics within the whole Middle East region, once again becoming a pivotal state with Washington support absolutely, even if the USA now could say that is becoming one of the worlds main natural gas producer ahead or Russia. Once again Lebanon will play a buffer zone role in Middle East powerplays, but this time, with a more explosive leverage tool, that is, energy.
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