Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Crimea, Catalonya, Scotland, Venice and the contagion of separatism in the EU. Whos behind this?

Its spreading like a virus. Looks like nobody believes in the nation state concept any more. Weird things like Venice inhabitants asking for independence from Italy, Catalonya as well looking to secede from Spain and what´s happening with Crimea and Moldavia (Gagauz and Transdniestria), the Flanders in Belgium and Scotland from the United Kingdom shows that maybe the European Union as a whole might reach to an end soon. In my point of view secessionism as a phenomenon in the international relations and the international community has so far been very common and usual in Asia and Africa, sometimes being promoted by foreign powers and their economic and political interests (i.e East Timor, South Sudan, Kosovo) but now Europe is plagued by this phenomenon along with the resurgence of the ultra right movements and parties in the political landscape, maybe because the left and center left has not given and fullfilled the needs and demands of the european population. Important and relevant is to say that in most cases economic motives push for these cases of separatism given the case that for example South Sudan secessionism was motivated by oil resources to diminish the influence of President Omar Al Bashir by the West, etc. Scotland is another example where oil has enough role to play in this desire for autonomy and independence from the UK. And last but not least important Crimea referendum is inextricably linked with oil control given the fact that there´s oil and gas reserves off the coast of the Black Sea. But two things remain uncertain: Are these separatism cases spreading like domino in Europe really controlled by foreing powers like Russia or Washington? Who gets more profits from this? What about if these separatist desires reach Saudi Arabia Eastern Province? or Chechnya and Daguestan?





Thursday, March 13, 2014

Defining Political Risks matters more than ever today

Even if the discipline of measuring and analyzing political risks hasn´t been taken into much consideration by the main corporations and companies worldwide, today in an ever changing world and not much stable, plenty of  unforeseen and unforecasted risks, managing and asessing tools for measuring political risks is one of the main tasks any company could ever have and acquire. Much has been said and told that political risk is a not very tangible variable to have in a macro plan for companies, but now that we are living in a world full of fault lines in each and every country, with decissions that affect the lives of many, the upsurge in actions such as worldwide maritime piracy, drug smuggling, civil and internecine wars, which all of these events can happen at any given moment with no accurate alerts such as for example the outburst of a political revolution like the ones happened in Ukraine, with the Arab Spring, and so forth, corporations in any economic field should have the capability and all the available means to assess these events, in order to minimize losses in any country they carry operations at any level. Take for example situations like the ones happened with SHELL in Nigeria (its oil production has suffered a very dramatic reduction of more than 50% because of the Niger Delta Tigers terrorist attacks aimed at SHELL and ENI off shore and on shore platforms and other oil facilities in this region), which could have been prevented if political risk had been taken into the highest consideration ever. Any political event that can change the whole landscape in a country suddenly can represent and pose a risk for companies, which has to consider this key factor more than ever today in an ever globalized and interconnected world where political changes are just around the corner, or put in Mr Brzezinski words, in times of "global awakening". Thats why political risk has much importance in the world nowadays, and not just financial risks.

A Map of the Crimean Peninsula


Saturday, March 1, 2014

Venezuela is not Ukraine

Regarding political unrest and protests happening simultaneously in Ukraine and Venezuela, western media has insistently and repitedly tried to put in the same box both situations like if circumstances were the same culturally politically and most important ethnically speaking in both countries trying to promote coup d'etats as well in Venezuela like the one that happened in Ukraine. Situation in Venezuela is different, the government still has grip on different key power elements like the state oil company, the military and a very important base support on the middle and lower classes, since protests by students are very well located specifically in upper classes areas located at 5 or 6 states of the country not the whole country. Even though the specter of separatism in Venezuela is latent being Tachira state (southern border state with Colombia) a very precious prize for foreign powers to destabilize President Maduro's government, it is not as much present as in Ukraine with Crimea about to be invaded by Russia military. And speaking of ethnicity, in Venezuela there aint no religious nor ethnic clashes like the one in Ukraine with ukrainians versus russians. So the global media is trying and rehearsing to see if the ukraine scenario could be repeated in Venezuela, but that seems very unlikely at least for the moment, even though for the US both these countries are very valuable geopolitically and geostrategically speaking.

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