Algeria, one of the most relevant natural gas producer and exporter in the OPEC and alternative source of natural gas exports to Europe, is facing one of its most uncertain times regarding its political and security currently, related first with the critical situation of president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and the issue with the succession of his post in case of his failing to continue power, which could raise many struggles between many factions in the political elite, and also having the risk of islamic radicalism gaining and expanding their presence in the country, which could set a repetition to the precedent of the civil war after the victory in elections of the Islamic Salvation Front in the 90's and the crackdown of the military forces to the members of this islamic leaned party, which reflects in many cases all across the MENA countries the continuing tensions between the secular forces solidified and controlled by military elites and the islamic political parties, and where Algeria might not be the exception this time.
In terms of oil and gas production, Algeria has been one of its steady producers and certainly has been hit by the low oil prices ever since 2014 when this period started originally, having european oil and gas companies like REPSOL, ENI as the top actors in the algerian energy landscape, ending the 2015 with a daily production of 1.2 millions of barrels per day, an overall refining capacity of over 650 thousands barrels per day, totalling proven reserves of around 12.2 billions of barrels and of natural gas of 4.500 billions of cubic meters, and having Europe and North America as their main destinations for its exports, according to OPEC's most recent data on Algeria, making this country not just for its energy important characterisation but also for its geopolitically important location a very sensitive spot to have in mind and monitor for Washington but most importantly for the EU's energy security in its constant search for alternative natural gas sources and to reduce its sempiternal addiction and dependence on russian imports, thats why algeria and its political and security situation and its potential outcome is so crucial for Europe.
And this situation regarding Algeria and the potential dangers of it becoming another some sort of Libya in terms of political and security worsening situation and the growing presence of islamic extremist organisations for the EU, the Maghreb and Washington started just when an Al Qaeda affiliate group led by Mokhar Belmokhtar took expats as hostages in the Tingantourine gas facility near the location of In Amenas, putting the security risks under the radar for the energy industry and especially for the algerian state company SONATRACH and foreign companies like BP with which operates this facility under intense scrutiny, having the potential to expand and make it more recurrent for other types of facilities that could threaten to affect algerian oil and gas exports to Europe in some sort of way, if not properly assessed by the algerian government, just like it has happened with some other cases of terrorist organisations impacting the oil and gas business in Nigeria and the ever worsening situation of political instability in Libya which has practically destroyed its overall oil production to a meager 300 thousands barrels per day.
Now that the country has been trying to develop a strategy to diversify its economy from its oil and gas dependency with a plan called "the patronage" due to the considerable impact of low oil prices, related mainly to cutting subsidies for the use of fuel and gasolines, and also in changing its sources of energy to renewables just like other countries in the MENA region and within the OPEC have started to do watching how oil prices have diminished their revenues, Algeria definitely faces many important political and security hurdles to keep in mind and considering if it wants to preserve its stability as a country not to run the risk of becoming another failed state like Libya or Iraq or Syria, having also specific foreign players like France and Brussels in general important interests in this country, so its really crucial what the future of Algeria might be in the next 5 years to say the least, facing right now many uncertainties that could add more pressure to the already conflicting and troublesome picture not just of the strained picture and relations within the OPEC which is much to say but for the entire oil and gas international markets.
