Saturday, January 14, 2017
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Participation in Wikistrat's Discussion Forum: Pathways for Peace in Syria
From December 20th 2016 and until January 6th 2017 I had the chance to actively participate in a discussion forum hosted and organised by the exclusive crowdsourced consulting firm unique in its style, WIKISTRAT, called Pathways for Peace in Syria, where through a long, exciting and hot debated discussion many views and angles of the longstanding almost 7 years aged war in Syria and the potential ways for peace taking real time news feeds as per the basis of our daily basis discussions and red teaming. Perspectives like the underlying logic of gas and oil pipeline geopolitics, the role of Iran and Syria in the conflict and as potential peace brokers and winners of this conflict, the active role of Turkey and its interests and implications, the similarities with regional cases like Lebanon and possible ways to apply for a political solution in Syria were between the many options discussed through the duration of this discussion, which needs to be replicated in other interactive analytical platforms and follow this example set by WIKISTRAT, in which i have been participating as a Contributing Analyst for the Energy Security Desk, what has been a very enriching analytical and learning experience.
I can only say thumbs up for this initiative and for the many WIKISTRAT has had since its inception since it is so far the best platform for interactive analysis on a wide array of current hot topics ranging from social issues, technological breakthroughs, geopolitics, oil and gas and energy, business new trends, and allows its analysts to keep on learning each day of participation in this platform. Here i want to share the link to the complete discussion on Syria which ended yesterday:
Thursday, November 24, 2016
La elección de Donald Trump y sus implicaciones para el mercado petrolero
Se produjo lo que muchos temian y la mayoría de las encuestadoras mas prestigiosas fallaron en pronosticar, la elección del empresario magnate por el Partido Republicano, Donald Trump como el proximo Presidente de Estados Unidos, quien asumirá el mandato el proximo 20 de enero de 2017. Y las reacciones de los mercados globales no se han hecho esperar aunque hasta ahora estos movimientos bursátiles y financieros han sido mas bien positivos y alcistas, mientras que la industria petrolera y en especial en Estados Unidos, ya se han generado especulaciones positivas sobre un nuevo resurgimiento del negocio del shale oil y gas especialmente en el estado de Texas, donde a raíz de la elección de Trump, ya se empiezan a observar movimientos importantes sobre recuperación de puestos de trabajos, aumento de la producción y nuevos descubrimientos de campos, todo ello en un ambiente prolongado de precios del crudo bajos y donde la OPEP sigue sufriendo de una importante fractura interna acusando falta de disciplina y consensos ante la próxima reunion a sostenerse a finales de noviembre para tratar de lograr un recorte de su producción global con el fin de recuperar los precios petroleros que se mantienen promediando los 48$.
Y es que bajo su lema "Make America great again" (Hagamos America grande otra vez), y luego de haber anunciado lo que serian sus puntos principales en materia de política energética durante su administración en los próximos 4 anos, aun esperando el nombramiento de quien seria su Secretario de Energia (se están manejando nombres de politicos como el ex gobernador del estado petrolero mas importante Texas, Rick Perry, así como el empresario petrolero de Oklahoma, Michael Hamm ademas de otro politico republicano Mitt Romney), se visualiza natural que el Presidente Donald Trump de un nuevo impulso a la producción petrolera de Estados Unidos, reducir aun mas las importaciones de crudo desde países OPEP y no OPEP, reducir los subsidios e inversiones en la producción de energías renovables y verdes como la solar con un auge importante no solo en USA sino en el mundo, así como un probable impulso a la industria del carbon, de cuyos trabajadores, el candidato Trump hizo una de sus banderas cuando se encontraba en campana electoral, así como el polémico punto de sacar a Estados Unidos del Acuerdo de Cambio Climatico de Paris, lo que tendría importantes implicaciones negativas para el tema ambiental y la promoción de las energías renovables a nivel mundial, lo que Donald Trump califica como un pretexto de China para desplazar a Estados Unidos en materia industrial.
En este sentido, se puede esperar entonces que en cuanto a la relación petrolera de Estados Unidos con los principales actores como Rusia, OPEP, Iran, en materia de demanda y exportaciones sea la de mayor competencia en cuanto a un aumento exponencial de la producción petrolera y de gas en hubs importantes como Texas, Dakota, Alaska, mayor numero de exportaciones petroleras y de gas licuado desde USA a países asiáticos y europeos, una importante competencia de la producción de carbon con otro actor de peso en esta categoría como China así como con Rusia, mayor cercanía con Canada y Mexico en materia petrolera, aunque restaria por ver como sera la relación en esta materia con Rusia, país con el cual se ha asociado en varias oportunidades al presidente electo Donald Trump y su mandatario Vladimir Putin. Habra que esperar a que el presidente electo Trump asuma el poder el proximo enero y quien sera el nuevo secretario de Energia, si sera un empresario puro y duro de la industria petrolera o si mas bien Trump se decidira por un politico con capacidad de conciliar intereses empresariales con los intereses de grupos ambientales y de la colectividad en general.
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Coal Market Analysis in the next 5 years. Final work for Coursera's Seminar on Fundamentals of Global Energy Business
Coal Market Analysis in the next 5 years:
Jose Luis Chalhoub
Preview:
Coal has been known as the most damaging source of energy for the environment and highly contaminant, and this is why many efforts have been carried out by especially the OECD nations to reduce their overall consumption and demand in the last years. But still non OECD nations and emerging economies still remain highly consumers of coal for their economic growth, which still remains one of their top source of primer energy for industrial consumption overall.
Currently, worldwide 30% of total energy demand and over 40% of the electricity generation comes from coal, according as well to the International Energy Agency:
Causes for the decline in reserves of coal:
In terms of the decline in reserves of coal globally, this happened mainly because of:
Limited investments in technology needed to extract coal and also for its production, at the time due to the impact to the environment, and based on the global commitments made under the umbrella of the Climate Change Agreements.
Many countries including the top consuming nations like China and India and also the United States have taken steps to reduce carbon emissions, so this has and would have also influence in the demand and supply of coal as a primary energy source,
Even if coal has been always considered since long time ago as top source of electricity, so much needed in emerging economies and the developing world.
Historical market conditions for coal based on supply and demand:
According to the International Energy Agency, coal use started ever since the Industrial Revolution and hence never stopped growing globally, and will be significant in the future, and in this regard, greater efforts are needed by governments and companies to embrace less polluting and more efficient technologies to ensure coal becomes a cleaner source of energy in the decades to come.
In this sense, it turns to be significant that from 2000 to 2012, coal resulted to comprise 46% of total added global primary energy, that is, the amount of global coal supplied was 1520 MTOE of the 3292 MTOE of additional global primary energy in the aforementioned period, and 200 MW/day was the total new coal generation capacity commissioned in the world in 2010 through 2014.
Even if the outlook for coal does not seem to be dwindling down so far, at least not in the next 5 years, due to the increased demand coming from China and India, and also from the United States, the coal industry has been experiencing an important decay in the last 15 years or more, especially from the 1990’s from the supply side, which has been decreasing at a faster pace than the demand.
Based on the ongoing ever stricter environmental regulations being progressively implemented by the EU, the US, in sum, the coal market overall has a long history of supply and demand struggles and definitely we are experiencing one today, when all things related to the environment are being so much subjected to public opinion scrutiny, and when natural gas everyday appears to be the cleanest substitute for coal in terms of electricity generation so far.
Main causes and determinants for increase in demand of coal:
1.) Increased levels of international trade and economic growth specifically in whats been called the emerging markets.
2.) Strategic role of China and India in the demand of coal in the last decade due to their sustained pace of economic growth based on the position played by coal in their respective energy mix.
3.) Since no major and massive technological advancements and breakthroughs are needed to revamp and install new facilities for coal production, then the rate of production of coal will keep up its pace in the next years which will meet the increasing demand from China and India.
4.) According to the International Energy Agency, coal consumption will climb to 4.32 billions of tons of oil equivalent for 2017, and the role of coal in the share of global energy mix will continue to grow in the next decade if no stronger policies are applied, the coal will catch up will oil in terms of demand globally.
Future in the short and medium term for coal in the US and globally:
But now when we have an election in the US with one candidate Donald Trump, supporting strongly the revival of the coal industry in USA, maybe we could see a resurgence of this source of energy in terms of supplies, that is if Mr Trump gets to win the next presidential elections in November, which could be a boost for coal, with China and India not backing off their demand of coal even if India signed recently the Climate Change Agreement just days ago.
Also the global efforts to find and develop new sources of non renewables energy and also the relevance gained by the natural gas as the substitute of petroleum have in general overshadowed the development of coal as top primary source of energy.
I would like to share this link, which is about a report done by the World Energy Council about current status of coal worldwide which might be of use for this submission as complimentary reading.https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/WER_2013_1_Coal.pdf. Here is another link as complimentary: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-energy-exchanges-idUSKCN11B1Q8?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter.
With current oil prices and if they keep this sustained pace, and depending also on the pace and speed of economic growth of countries like China and India, the latter experiencing a higher growth than the latter and its economy based on coal as well, then we could foresee in the next 5 years a rise in the demand of coal and also an increasing incentive for new efforts of exploration and discoveries of new sources of coal to expand the current base of reserves globally,
But it could happen that these efforts could be undermined if the price of coal rise significantly, and also we will see natural gas as a stronger competitor for coal and with more use as per electricity generator and also cleaner than coal for this end use, which would also contribute to the downsizing of coal reserves and also more efforts by OECD countries especially the ones transitioning to the use of non renewables in Western Europe specifically.
Sunday, October 23, 2016
Mosul, Iraq and risks for the oil industry
Recently the 2nd largest city in Iraq, Mosul, has been the new epicentre of fresh violence in the sectarian field between shiites and sunnis where ISIS has been trying to deploy what could be one of its last massive strategy to stay alive in Iraq, Libya and Syria, and where the West has launched an important campaign to root out and eliminate the positions of elements of this radical extremist group, in a country already facing a threat of disintegration between a Kurdistan in the north with an important percentage of iraqi overall production, a sunni central part and a shiite southern part and where all across the country since the 2003 intervention, multiple clashes between sunni and shiite have been going on up until now, just about when Iraq has been stepping up efforts to raise its oil production, in a country which holds the 4th largest oil reserve within the OPEC.
But it looks like that all these positive efforts by Iraqi government to raise its oil production (notwithstanding many previous problems with the Kurdish Regional Government in terms of contracts and blocks offerings by kurdish authorities to foreign companies without permission from Baghdad) might find an important obstacle after the eruption of violence in Mosul and which so far has been affecting even if in a small extent some oil wells which have been burnt by ISIS militants not just in Mosul but also in Kirkuk, a larger oil producing city, this could really if not properly managed hit a blow not just to iraqi oil production but also causing an important impact to world oil prices. And because of this situation, iraqi oil authorities just pledged to OPEC for an exemption of any oil cut deal to be confirmed in November, citing the war on ISIS and the recent situation in Mosul, and after the recent rout Baghdad had with OPEC also due to mishandling of iraqi oil production data by the organisation.
Important to consider the timing of this recent resurgence of violence in Iraq after a period of relatively small stability, but stability after all, and all the linkings and connections with all the situation in Libya and Syria where ISIS has been striving to survive, and also the interests of the many foreign players involved in all the chaotic situation in the MENA region, and where the most important stake holders might seem to be Iran (a key ally of the current shiite government of Iraq) and Saudi Arabia, which is also undergoing important issues in its own soil as well as in the regional level with a war in Yemen which has been importantly draining its state funds pushing to carry out massive economic and financial reforms to prevent a financial collapse in the medium run.
In this sense, what happens in Mosul in the next days or weeks might be determinant for the future not just for Iraq but also for the entire MENA region, and on this is important to mention an ongoing discussion forum held and sponsored by the crowdsourced consultancy firm WIKISTRAT which pursues to envision and forecast the future of Mosul and Iraq after this sudden eruption of violence and which so far has been discussing many angles and aspects of this current hotspot, showing the importance and relevance of this issue.
Sunday, October 16, 2016
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