Sunday, December 9, 2012
Russia The New European Central Bank
Russia is seemingly taking shape as a some sort of an alternate european central bank, being so in the sense that now that Europe is in shambles and through its worst financial situation ever since its birth and the euro about to be replaced by the national currencies of every european countries, now the Kremlin lead by Putin and company (the silovikys) is taking leverage of its huge and massive yearly incomes for oil and gas exports in hard currency, in order to lend money to countries such as Cyprus, Hungary, Greece, Serbia and the likes for now (if for some reason they are only countries religiously and ethnically allied) it doesnt mean that the margin couldnt be widened to other western european countries in the medium and long term, recalling that the Russian Fund is boasting with almost 600 billions of dollars only for oil incomes savings, taking also into consideration that Russia has massive gold reserves. With tools such as the Nord Stream, now South Stream, also with the Britain government admitting to want to be clients for russian gas exports, as well as other achievements, and having Germany on the verge of a worsening economic situation (the more so being the heaviest economy in Europe), despite what some russo skeptics say, Russia is on the path of somehow replace the ECB (europe central bank) to be a special financial helper of the European Union as a whole.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Sunday, July 29, 2012
The kurdish factor in the Syria`-Iraq-Turkey gepolitical triangle
Within all the turmoil that has shaken the political stability suddenly in countries such as Syria, Irak and the role that Turkey has come to play as a regional force to mediate in each particular circumstance, hides one vital and strategic geopolitical factor that could be the final spark to transform and give shape to a new landscape in this particular triangle, such as the Kurdish people and its political force. To this respect we have seen in the first place since the war in Irak ended, how to the Baghdad central government disbelief and grief , the Kurdistan government has given away lots of contracts and licenses to many non US companies and many chinese and british oil companies, to work in the main oilfields located at the norhernmost part of iraqi sector (kurdish that is to say) where the kurdish autonomy has a considerable sovereignty, and at the sametime claiming ever more power apart from Irak central government. Besides this fact, many times we have read and heard about attacks and sabotages actions aimed at the Irak-Turkey pipeline perpetrated by the armed force of the Kurdistan Workers Party, in a move to demand more autonomy by the kurdish sector located inside Turkety (another part of the kurdish triangle), and then we find another piece in the kurdish geopolitical puzzle, this time, in the syrian turmoil, which, if it joins forces with the Syrian Free Army, and if it gains total control of the country and topples al Assad`s government, could garner an even greater influence and acknowledgement by the international community (this talking about a hypothetical Kurdistan Republic recognized by the UN in the near future). But this of course will depend on the support of two big regional and world powers and these two deal with the kurdish government, the USA and Turkey, at the end, their most important supporters as well as foes at the same time, depending on how they behave according to the former actors desire in the regional geopolitical puzzle. But beware, because the Kurdistan want their say too in regional affairs, and they have too much oil on their soil to do so.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
TANAP VS SOUTHSTREAM IN THE EUROPEAN AND EURASIAN ENERGY SECURITY CONTEXT
Currently all Europe energy security is pending on two different alternatives of transporting all the oil and gas flows from the Caspian Sea and from Russia, namely the South Stream which has been fiercely sponsored by the Russian government through GAZPROM and which has the main goal of suppyling Southern and Central Europe with all the gas coming from russian fields and to which almost allhe incumbent countries have adhered (i.e Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Italy, Austria) and that after the Nord Streahas been the second mayor gas pipeline that has been proposed by Russia to reinforce european energy dependence on its power, and having NABUCCO project almost dead with no other alternative set so far to replace it. But now, the TANAP (Trans Anatolian Pipeline) could be a small alter proposal by the West in trying to reduce this dependence and almost addiction to russian gas and oil, taking advantage of one pivotal country such as Turkey and the other one being Azerbaiyan, which can carry enough oil from the biggest azeri field the Shah Deniz and with the main goal set in the eurooean markets, reaching turkish and georgian ports at the end of its transit. But the main question remains: can it be long enough to serve all the countries that the South Strea pretends to serve and supply? On which side is really Turkey, given the fact that it too receives Russian gas from the Blue Stream? and at the end of the day what could be the azeri position towards Russia, namely the latter a former soviet republic and being courted by Washington and NATO against russian intentions of keeping its sphere of influence over this country? and plus the South Stream can be finished the end of 2012 compared to the uncertainties of the TANAP over date and other details. It will be an interesting scenario in the long term.
Monday, July 23, 2012
USA and Israel want to strengthen their energy ties. Fear from Russia maybe?
The White House and Israel announced they wanted to reinforce their cooperation on energy issues, in a moment when Israel is experiencing its best energy (gas specifically) moment, due to recent discoveries of massive gas fields, making Israel a sudden hub for gas in the Mediterranean, alongside Cyprus, the other surprise in the world gas arena. But this announcement has another implication, in a way that Russia has shown intentions of reinforcing its cooperation with Israel, being an example of that when Vladimir Putin made Israel his first stop during a recent trip to the Middle East, underscoring the importance the Kremlin gives to Israel now, moreover when GAZPROM supplies a considerable part of the gas Israel consumes and the russian intentions of participating with the Israeli government in gas projects. So this recent Obama administration move has a geopolitical implication too, fearing Russia would displace the US as a main ally of Israel, and plus given the not so warm relationship between Netanhayu and Obama in recent years. Lets see who gets Israel at the end and lets not forget that the USA is too a gas heavyweight, so it will be a big struggle in the short term.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
italy goes to russia for energy but maybe for a bailout? Opps
the meeting between mario monti from italy and vladimir putin from russia has a deep impact in italian russian relationship first of all because of the long standing berlusconi putin friendship and energy partnership sustained by ENI and GAZPROM in many projects and most important because of the financial crisis that is threatening now the italian government and people so it might be plausible that the Kremlin could be a potential bailout player for Italy in case of a generalized crisis in this country? interesting scenario to come and big opportunities in the foreseeabe future for the Putin government to finally consolidate its power alongside Brussels now that it has finally joined the World Trade Organization...
cyprus as a tool for russian financial influence in europe
cyprus suddenly has become as a strategic tool for russian government to have a final say in european financial architecture and more important given all the mayhem that the EU is experiencing now. By accepting a bailout, Cyprus now is at Kremlin hands and could pave the way for more russian influence in euro-affairs, more over given its massive energy resources gas and oil.
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