Tuesday, July 24, 2012

TANAP VS SOUTHSTREAM IN THE EUROPEAN AND EURASIAN ENERGY SECURITY CONTEXT

Currently all Europe energy security is pending on two different alternatives of transporting all the oil and gas flows from the Caspian Sea and from Russia, namely the South Stream which has been fiercely sponsored by the Russian government through GAZPROM and which has the main goal of suppyling Southern and Central Europe with all the gas coming from russian fields and to which almost allhe incumbent countries have adhered (i.e Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Italy, Austria) and that after the Nord Streahas been the second mayor gas pipeline that has been proposed by Russia to reinforce european energy dependence on its power, and having NABUCCO project almost dead with no other alternative set so far to replace it. But now, the TANAP (Trans Anatolian Pipeline) could be a small alter proposal by the West in trying to reduce this dependence and almost addiction to russian gas and oil, taking advantage of one pivotal country such as Turkey and the other one being Azerbaiyan, which can carry enough oil from the biggest azeri field the Shah Deniz and with the main goal set in the eurooean markets, reaching turkish and georgian ports at the end of its transit. But the main question remains: can it be long enough to serve all the countries that the South Strea pretends to serve and supply? On which side is really Turkey, given the fact that it too receives Russian gas from the Blue Stream? and at the end of the day what could be the azeri position towards Russia, namely the latter a former soviet republic and being courted by Washington and NATO against russian intentions of keeping its sphere of influence over this country? and plus the South Stream can be finished  the end of 2012 compared to the uncertainties of the TANAP over date and other details. It will be an interesting scenario in the long term.

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