Thursday, October 16, 2014

Oil Prices,Political Risks and OPEC

As the global outcry for continuing plunging of oil prices below 80$ per barrel and with the possibility to go further below, the chances for political risks increase in oil producing countries which rely the most on a 100$ plus barrel of oil, such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran naming the most prominent and facing a considerable internal social pressure. Here of course its shown how the split within OPEC is broadening, exponentially augmented by the sunni-shiite showdown throughout the MENA region lead by Saudi Arabia and Iran, sadly projected into OPEC dynamics affecting other non arab countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador just to say names. So political risks increase this time on the side of oil producing countries, opening the door for potential social upheavals, rifts, in an environment where the affected states possibly could have to cut social expenditures to balance and adjust budgets, as low as oil prices can roll back, which so far is truly uncertain, and hypothetically  Saudi Arabia only has the answer as the sole swing producer in the OPEC. One thing is true, and this is that the OPEC will no longer be a unified and coherent oil bloc abiding to their country members interest, and only responding to political selfish interest held by the strongest of its members, Saudi Arabia. So as far as this situation keeps unfolding, showing the OPEC a sad picture, theres the question of this organization traditional pivotal role in world energy markets, if its really necessary to control oil prices, to whom it really responds (to its members, foreign powers like the US or China) and of course if the OPEC really works and adequate in tune with the modern world. Pretty sure that after this situation, rather than being the traditional strong cartel that it used to be, the OPEC could have its own image pretty much damaged, and only because of power plays between saudis and iranians for the control of Islam and the arab world.

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