Sunday, November 30, 2014

Dangerous eurasian games...

After what happened in Ukraine where apparently Washington and Brussels looked confident as having scored a very strategic goal overthrowing pro russian Yanukovich and installing pro western Petro Poroshenko and all that followed suit winning the latest parliamentary elections, it ostensibly looks as if situation not only in Ukraine (including the ongoing situation of violence in the Donbass, Lugansk and Donetsk where proKremlin factors are not giving any signals of surrendering their sovereignty claims strongly supported by Mr Putin, now there had been dangerous geopolitical maneuverings either by the White House Brussels axis or by the Kremlin taking the rest of the Eurasian landmass as a chess game where the next scenarios have been the Baltic (Estonia, Finland and Sweden have been crying out loud threats by russian navy in their waters), denied consequently by the Kremlin, and having NATO carrying out war games with the Baltic states after these maneouvres. Also Russia has been pushing and supportng strongly independence elements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgian war redux?), giving the fact that Georgia and all what happens there is of russian concern or has been. Most recently every presidential and parliamentary election in Romania and Moldova as the most recent have been closely watched by the EuropeanUnion and the Kremlin where the outcomes are decisive for their both geopolitical intentions. And Turkey wants russian gas too as the President Erdogan will surely sign a gas suppy agreement with Mr Putin, hitting another blow to Washington's intention in the area. And we have Russia signing heavy military and energy alliances with Pakistan (former US ally in combating and fighting Al Qaeda and now courted and seduced by Beijing and Moscow now). And if this was not enough, Moscow flexing muscles in the English Channel and no word by the White House so far, showing that so far and even under strong economic and financial sanctions, Mr Vladimir Putin is consistent with his strategy of at least retain Russian sphere of influence of Eurasia, and the most powerful tool is the Eurasian Union, where Armenia too fell under its magical spell even with the Armenian lobby in Capitol Hill being one of the strongest and most influencer, but not enough to stop this. So it seems that so far the sacrosanctum sanctions towards Russia have not worked to block the Kremlin from attaining its full geopolitical goal. Even the Kremlin recently could luxuriously afford to send surveillance planes to guess where? The Guf of Mexico! Home of the most prominent oil and gas platfoms of the US energy industry, and no strong reply from Washington to this either. 

This is why there are some dangeous games unfolding in Eurasia until now, and Russia likely will have the lead in the medium term. 

Breakeven oil prices for MENA-OPEC countries November 2014


Saturday, November 29, 2014

Moldova's Presidential Elections, Energy and Geopolitics

Tomorrow there will be another battle in the quest for Eurasia's geostrategic chessboard supremacy, and this time is up to the tiny Moldova to decide which side will take, either it goes for the European Union or with the Russian Federation, and where it seems likely and probable that the pro european political forces are taking the victory, though nothing is certain. No more important geopolitically speaking than Ukraine or Georgia for Brussels or Moscow ambitions, and with a small population and being one of the least blessed economically country in the european continent, there is one hotspot to be decided as well in the medium term such as the breakaway republic of Transdniestria which is supported by Russia, just like the cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia in Georgia and whats happening now in the Donetsk and Lugansk russian speaking breakaway republics of Ukraine backed by the Kremlin. So this can be a bargaining chip for Mr Putin if the results of this upcoming election turns to Brussels instead of blinking an eye to Moscow. Also Moldova depends highly on gas supplies coming from Russia putting it in a much more compromised position in its relationship either with Brussels or with Moscow. So tomorrow again energy will play a key role in the outcome of this elections, whichever they will be, having Russia under strong pressure on both sides on Western backed progressive sanctions and depressed oil prices hurting russian economy, and undeniably with a weaker position to negotiate now in the eurasian geopolitical chess, and if it Moldova decides to follow the same path of its neighbor Ukraine, the final word will be for the Kremlin. 


Wednesday, November 26, 2014

And after this so awaited OPEC meeting what next?

So much has been said speculated analyzed and overanalyzed about this upcoming meeting in Vienna of the OPEC    which has been under full pressure the last weeks blamed for the responsibility of having a progressive low oil prices environment but fundamentally this having been caused by Saudis and the Gulf monarchy states for comercial and geopolitical reasons and one thing even more worrisome and dark for the medium  term future for the cartel which is exposing its deep and sometimes irreconcilable divisions and contradictions basically led by the House of Al Saud claiming to represent sunni muslims interests worldwide against minority shiites led by Iran in a struggle that threatens to burn the whole MENA region away through sectarian clashes turning every country with no exception in a scenario battle for religious supremacy that has claimed many lives and this is mainly the reason on why Islam cant be a unified religion with a strong and cohesive hierarchy only for political interests undermining the arab world as a whole and affecting its position in the world economy extrapolating this situation in the opec being this the main reason why no consensus is within reach and why opec from now on wont be a functional organization with a strong and unified goal of defending fair oil prices for producers and exporters and also for allowing foreign interests dictate their goals. The world today is just too modern too flexible and so away from religious divisions of those tearing and destroying the opec now and with non opec countries with full fledged production rates now that it is certainly foreseeable even if not in the short term but in the long run the dissapearance of the Organization of the Petroleum of Exporting Countries as we know it

My participation in SPUTNIK NEWS on Global Diseases and Risks for Global Economy

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