Saturday, April 25, 2015
The war of the Streams in Eurasia.
First in the midst of great fanfare was opened and put into functioning the Nord Stream by the Kremlin of relatively new in power Mr Putin which had the goal of supplying Germany and the northern europe of russian gas, in an initial counterpunch to US led eurasian energy strategy to block the nascent Russia in the form of now not so successful NABUCCO and BTC pipelines which in general had the goal of sucking off gas and oil from the Caspian out to western markets, lessening european high dependence almost to narcotics levels on russian gas (forget about UK, Scotland, Norway, Algeria, and Libya alternatives to Russia), but so far, no great success has been reached by the White House and Mr Brzezinski goal to destroy Russia. Then the turn was for Blue Stream, another move by the Kremlin to start attaching Turkey, other pivotal state in Eurasia (in the words of Brzezinksi and his geopolitical chessboard) to its sphere of influence and ostensibly rooted on a eurasian geopolitical philosophy inspired by now influential Mr Duguin to reassert russian position the eurasian landmass through every possible and attainable mean. This was another successful exercise by russian energy elites in the energy geopolitical chess it is playing against the U.S and Brussels. Then came the macro strategy of the South Stream, with even greater fanfare and with the goal of encircling the whole southern, central and eastern sides of Europe to the russian natural gas drug, against which in the middle of worrying and higher symptoms of alerts, the EU and Washington decided to start scenarios like Ukraine, Georgia, color revolutions, and so on, to blockade this other "gas stream" by the Kremlin.
This time, and out of the economic pain first inflicted by the sanctions imposed by the Obama administration (again forget about the "reset" with the Kremlin), specially on the oil and gas sector, and tied with oil prices recent crash, prompted by saudis most of all, but not at all, this south stream effort soon had to be freezed out, due to all these reasons, and sincerely, it was very ambitious to be true. Then came the initiatives by the European Union to design a so called "Energy Union" (i wonder whatever happened and the status of the energy charter of the dying EU) to counter more painful and threatening russian moves in the energy field (sorry what sanctions said Mr Rex Tillerson i guess when EXXON teamed up with ROSNEFT in the Arctic in the heat of it). Then came the shale gas fuss coming directly from the United States which so far yes has given strength to its oil and gas industry, but with high costs, and consequently promoting more fuss and some hysteria about possible shale gas discoveries in eastern europe countries like Poland, Romania, Hungary (sadly no considerable reserves of this by CHEVRON, which left), which truth be told, gives Washington and Brussels a boomerang like counterblow to its underlying strategy of diminishing its natural gas strategy in Eurasia.
And the most recent move by the Kremlin ( a new sanctionless seemingly Kremlin) with a stronger ruble and a renewed look, to promote the new Turkish Stream, which is no more than the continuation of the Blue Stream, aimed at Turkey and reasserting its position in the Black Sea region and consequently the whole eurasian mass. So the fanfare and the parades of energy and natural gas streams continues and with a Russia turning more east then west, and having a repentant lately Europe (which will never agree on an energy policy having so many diverse and particular energy needs based on every country energy mix and inner political dynamics) vis a vis Russia. All this fuss because of the White House intentions of blocking Russia by every mean possible. But, lets be real, NABUCCO failed, the BTC never reached levels of displacing Russia as a whole, Algeria and Libya together also wont make it to be a substitute to Russia and facing constant threats of radical islamism, ISIS, Al Qaeda, this will add up to political risks to their energy industry disrupting any chance of being an alternative to Europe. And last, but absolutely not the least, but the corolary of all, the United States in a hot debate on whether to export or not LNG to Europe, if it decides to lift the ban on this (will definitely be under a republican administration), then will have to make up and be an important player against Russia in this field, which hardly will be so.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Russia is going here, there and everywhere.
Far from being cracked down on "so called sanctions" imposed by Brussels and Washington, and less than scared and amazed by recent and on going turmoil in Ukraine, the Russian Federation is plagued with positive news just about lately, having Mr Putin been named once again Most Influential person of the year by its readers, beating for a second time, as far as we remember Mr Obama in this realm, for all its strategic actions and positions having obviously his country under attack, out of which he decided not to faint and stay true to his goals and purposes to reinsert Russia in the global scene. Also, the ruble is on a protracted recovery path against the dollar and the euro, but curiously most against the euro, gaining more than 20 points (i remember it plunged almost at a point of 70 rubles per dollar and now it it at less than 50!, now thats an achievement) and against the euro as well, very significant showing in a comparative way, and talking very objectively, Russia is faring much better right now than the majority of the european economies, with the exception i guess of Germany in the continent of course. Forget about all the southern european economies and maybe i can save France out of this european mess, of which the Russian Federation can be its ultimate savior, if and only if Europe stops attacking Russia and understands once and for all that its condemned to a love/hate relationship with the giant bear of Eurasia, and now more than ever when in terms of natural gas the landscape for Europe looks and is grimmer than ever before, where Norway reaches soon its peak production, and where Libya and Algeria wont count for a substantial share of natgas exports to Europe any time soon, at least not that of the Russian Federation, because of political instability in both countries of the Maghreb. Forget about it, the EU needs to reach an agreement on this respect.
And so we see once again, an assertive Russia more confident, expanding its Eurasian Union, signing deals with Turkey on the so called "Turkish Stream" bringing gas to also a very gas needy Turkey: having as another advantage Russia the recent decission by Chevron not to continue shale gas prospection in once promising countries like Poland, Romania, since no considerable reserves were found there, so another point for the master of chudo Putin in an ever more interesting geopolitical chess, specifically on the energy field, where at the same time, Washington and the White House have not been able to lift the natural gas exports ban to try to undermine the more than influential Russian position in the european markets, so 1 more point for the Kremlin. One important thing is how Russia behaves right now in the Baltic states, where NATO have tried to also block russian position, being proactive instead, a position not coherent with a weak and "sanctioned country" And two more recent events, the recent visit by Mr Rogozin to the Arctic, other hotspot for Russia in its quest for energy and geopolitical projection of power, showing that its not willing to abandon that point, and the recent signing of a natural gas pipeline with Pakistan of 2 billions of dollars, another geopolitical area which Russia is reluctant to abandon.
Also, Russia is trying to be very much more assertive in the MENA region, and now regarding the conflict in Yemen, even if its not really convenient economically and financial speaking to directly support any sides on this conflict, it is on its convenience any further political gains and advance by the Islamic Republic and the Houthis, and its continuing support for Bashar Al Assad in Syria, and so on. Important how this situation will play out in the future dynamics between the OPEC and Russia dialogues and talks. But yes, Russia wants to be in the Middle East too, where US influence slightly wanes.
This is why Russia is going here, there and everywhere, and far from resembling a sanctioned and blockaded country, it looks that a new phase is coming for Russia now. And two outcomes will be very crucial for the long term outlook of Russia in the international arena: Yemen and Ukraine. It's only a matter of time.
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