Sunday, April 19, 2015

Russia is going here, there and everywhere.

Far from being cracked down on "so called sanctions" imposed by Brussels and Washington, and less than scared and amazed by recent and on going turmoil in Ukraine, the Russian Federation is plagued with positive news just about lately, having Mr Putin been named once again Most Influential person of the year by its readers, beating for a second time, as far as we remember Mr Obama in this realm, for all its strategic actions and positions having obviously his country under attack, out of which he decided not to faint and stay true to his goals and purposes to reinsert Russia in the global scene. Also, the ruble is on a protracted recovery path against the dollar and the euro, but curiously most against the euro, gaining more than 20 points (i remember it plunged almost at a point of 70 rubles per dollar and now it it at less than 50!, now thats an achievement) and against the euro as well, very significant showing in a comparative way, and talking very objectively, Russia is faring much better right now than the majority of the european economies, with the exception i guess of Germany in the continent of course. Forget about all the southern european economies and maybe i can save France out of this european mess, of which the Russian Federation can be its ultimate savior, if and only if Europe stops attacking Russia and understands once and for all that its condemned to a love/hate relationship with the giant bear of Eurasia, and now more than ever when in terms of natural gas the landscape for Europe looks and is grimmer than ever before, where Norway reaches soon its peak production, and where Libya and Algeria wont count for a substantial share of natgas exports to Europe any time soon, at least not that of the Russian Federation, because of political instability in both countries of the Maghreb. Forget about it, the EU needs to reach an agreement on this respect. 




And so we see once again, an assertive Russia more confident, expanding its Eurasian Union, signing deals with Turkey on the so called "Turkish Stream" bringing gas to also a very gas needy Turkey: having as another advantage Russia the recent decission by Chevron not to continue shale gas prospection in once promising countries like Poland, Romania, since no considerable reserves were found there, so another point for the master of chudo Putin in an ever more interesting geopolitical chess, specifically on the energy field, where at the same time, Washington and the White House have not been able to lift the natural gas exports ban to try to undermine the more than influential Russian position in the european markets, so 1 more point for the Kremlin. One important thing is how Russia behaves right now in the Baltic states, where NATO have tried to also block russian position, being proactive instead, a position not coherent with a weak and "sanctioned country" And two more recent events, the recent visit by Mr Rogozin to the Arctic, other hotspot for Russia in its quest for energy and geopolitical projection of power, showing that its not willing to abandon that point, and the recent signing of a natural gas pipeline with Pakistan of 2 billions of dollars, another geopolitical area which Russia is reluctant to abandon. 

Also, Russia is trying to be very much more assertive in the MENA region, and now regarding the conflict in Yemen, even if its not really convenient economically and financial speaking to directly support any sides on this conflict, it is on its convenience any further political gains and advance by the Islamic Republic and the Houthis, and its continuing support for Bashar Al Assad in Syria, and so on. Important how this situation will play out in the future dynamics between the OPEC and Russia dialogues and talks. But yes, Russia wants to be in the Middle East too, where US influence slightly wanes. 

This is why Russia is going here, there and everywhere, and far from resembling a sanctioned and blockaded country, it looks that a new phase is coming for Russia now. And two outcomes will be very crucial for the long term outlook of Russia in the international arena: Yemen and Ukraine. It's only a matter of time.

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