Thursday, November 9, 2017
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Putin visit to Iran and implications
In the recent days, President Putin visited Iran and held a meeting with President Hasan Rouhani, where important strategic regional issues were on the table such as the crisis in Syria, the sectarian strife between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the issue of the referendum in Kurdistan and the potential consequences for Iran, and also where important energy deals were subscribed, of around 30 USD billions with the biggest oil and gas russian tycoons involved like ROSNEFT and GAZPROM. This according to Financial Times:
But not everything is sweet and roses between Moscow and Tehran, since its known that both countries have their respective grievances over bordering issues in the central asian region and for the resources in the Caspian Sea, also having Turkey as a competitor for this region, in order to expand their geopolitical influence after the void left by the United States. But it turns out that the threat of islamic extremism has been a uniting element for this triangle of players which have been actively cooperating in mechanisms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others.
Also the meeting between Putin and Rouhani and the signing of the multimillionaire deal in the energy field shows full support and intention of Russia to Iran under the prospect of reinserting the sanctions by the Trump administration to Tehran, which if it applied, it will give the opportunity for deals and businesses for russian and chinese oil and gas companies in the iranian energy landscape in a moment when Russia is increasingly looking east in terms of searching for alternatives to its gas and oil supplies being under sanctions in the european markets. Definitely a great opportunity for Russia to become a player in Iran.
At the same time, this visit of President Putin to Tehran comes just weeks after the King Salman’s historic visit to Moscow during the Russian Energy Week and the OPEC non OPEC meeting, reflecting the goal of the Kremlin to become the next player and power broker in the Middle East and the Gulf region and a mediator between Riyadh and Tehran in the growing tensions between sunnis and shiites across the region, consequently filling the void left as well by Washington.
Interestingly enough, both players Moscow and Tehran also stated their plans to ditch off the US dollar and create new financial strategies like for example creating their new official platforms of bitcoins in order to curb and reduce the impact of the sanctions by the White House and the EU, reaching the bitcoin high levels of $7200 per bitcoin recently. In this regard, according to Zero Hedge, Iran might be on the path to developing its platform for bitcoin launching.
Also, its worth noting, that this comes days after the meeting between Mr Erdogan of Turkey and Hasan Rouhani in Iran and the recent meeting between authorities of Iraq and Saudi Arabia, showing how important the role of Russia has become and how fast the geopolitical dynamics are moving in the region, specifically centered around the issues of Syria, the Kurdistan future and the saudi iranian quest for preponderance and influence and the role Moscow is playing, which was traditionally played by the U.S.
In terms of energy, especially when it comes to natural gas, this meeting has a strategic relevance and it always has since it deals with the top natural gas producers and reserves in the world and also nuclear heavyweights, and the dynamics between Moscow and Tehran will always be a key determining factor for the energy geopolitics in Central Asia, China and the european markets in a broader context, in a moment when the U.S. is trying importantly to become a LNG (liquified natural gas) exporter and also of oil especially to Europe, so this meeting is of extreme importance for the geopolitics of energy, not only in the eurasian context but in a global sense.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Saudi Arabia's NEOM
Too much fanfare and media coverage about the NEOM multimillionaire project by Saudi Arabia, in the framework of Plan Vision 2030, but the kingdom needs to solve and assess important critical external threats to its stability and also it needs to assess the issue of the generational change of power and any potential sucession of the throne. Issues like islamic radicalism, Yemen, Iran, Syria seem far from being solved and an ongoing threat for the country.
he point is that too much has been discussed and talked about the changes coming to KSA but nothing about thorough political and social changes in the kingdom. And it seems that the Al Sauds are carrying out something similar like China, undergoing and projecting huge economic changes but political establishment remains untouched. And all this in the middle of a geopolitical change of the region with new foreign players with the power to displace the old and traditional power brokers and decision makers.
It is true that all whats been carried out in recent years and especially after the times of the Arab Spring and during the time span of the low oil prices that started in 2014 and have been here to stay at least so far (although they lifted up to 60$ due to geopolitical reasons like the Kurdistan crisis) by the GCC states especially by the KSA after King Salman came to the throne and under the especial aegis of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (allegedly the next heir to the throne) is laudable and bring hope for the well being of the people especially the youth,
But it's also true that the kingdom is in shaky sands and instability and political risks are the main threats to the feasibility of this mega project, which has also created what could be a positive race between the gulf states in terms of development and economic growth and also spurning the rise of renewables something unthinkable for these oil rich countries with large reserves.
Geopolitically speaking, this project which is aligned with the Plan Vision 2030, comes in times of many external political turmoil and battle fronts that the KSA has been playing and deploying forces, like in Yemen (turned into a never ending civil war and a humanitarian catastrophe), an uncertain situation in Syria with a potential winner Bashar Al Assad where allegedly saudis have poured money in backing up the rebels against the Assad regime;
Also an ongoing instability in Iraq, Libya, all this inserted in a general ongoing sectarian strife against Iran and the clash between sunnis and shiias led by these two powers, which altogether coupled with depleted reserves and continuing low oil prices, represent more or less the general picture in which this mega plan has been presented, which might give us a sense and the look of the kingdom portraying a better future for the country, but not giving the full overview of the potential critical outlook to which the kingdom is facing.
Hopefully for the stability of the whole region and the world, this megaproject has a positive impact and the potential to diminish these and other threats for the kingdom.
Monday, October 16, 2017
Pipeline Kirkuk-Ceyan
Even if oil production coming from the Kurdistan in North Iraq is not as much and significant as that from the southern fields where the majority of its oil flows come out, its very strategic and represents a spot for the western oil markets and the connection with Turkey through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is a clear example of this strategic relevance.
Drama in Kurdistan
Once again the Kurdistan becomes a sensitive issue in the international arena after more than 90% of the kurdish people said yes to their independence from Iraq and to gain their long desired statehood, raising the ire from pivotal players in the region like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and well, once again the U.S. opposes the kurdistan statehood.
But Russia and Israel are the only ones so far to recognise this, and even before this referendum, state oil company ROSNEFT was announcing deals with Kurdistan Regional Government. Foreseeing something maybe? Truth is Russia has been expanding its role in the MENA region, for lovers or haters, friends or foes, to the dismay of the U.S.
So far, Baghdad, and Tehran specifically have announced in a fanfare of statements angrily their rejection of this and calling for the annulment of the results, closing of air spaces and other steps in order to coerce Erbil back from this action and from the GCC states reactions of this sort have also been at the order of the day, since separatism and desires of independence have never fit well into monarchies projects and plans, especially having a kaleidoscope of religions and ethnic groups, many times under arbitrarily drawn borders. And precisely Kurdistan represents this and with geopolitical implications for Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria.
Its true that the Kurdistan Regional Government claims that historically they are a different people religiously and ethnically speaking from Baghdad, but here oil, gas and natural resources as in other separatist cases in the world play a crucial role in their aspirations to become a state and will definitely cut off resources from Baghdad mainly depriving it from resources to the central government.
Counting with approximately 50 billions of barrels of reserves of oil, its no wonder why Baghdad has been extremely worried at this step by Kurdistan and the government of Barzani. Already, the KRG has been going solo giving away bidding contracts with IOC's and NOC's. No easy task then for Baghdad and Ankara. Syria probably would find a way to negotiate with Erbil in this regard.
Not surprisingly Washington once again rejected this move and wont recognise this, since this is not the first time the White House and the Pentagon have used and leveraged on the peshmergas, kurdish warriors, in order to attain their strategic goals in the region vis a vis the former dictator Saddam Hussein, and other hotspots, and then forgetting about their claims for statehood. But interestingly, Israel, traditional ally of Washington supports this move, which might seem logic, since fuelling this independence move will instil more instability to its longstanding foes, Tehran and Baghdad, hence for Tel Aviv, this seems geopolitically speaking.
It will be interesting in the coming weeks the reactions from other strategic players in the region like China as important oil importer from Iraq and also from Germany, where a significant kurdish diaspora resides towards this move and also what further actions will do Moscow in regards to this move by Erbil, in a period of high instability in the region. But definitely Kurdistan referendum is causing and will still produce shockwaves that will configure the new geopolitics of the MENA.
In this sense, this weekend Iraq along with Iranian forces invaded Kirkuk, which holds the main oil wells in the Kurdistan soil and as of today, according to news outlets took control of the city, which might have important consequences for the geopolitical dynamics of the region and already has seen impacts for the oil prices.
Hence, will be critical to see the consequences for the war on ISIS in Syria and Iraq and across the region as the peshmergas were an important key asset in the struggle against ISIS for the West and also Russia, if their cause for statehood keeps being betrayed and discarded over and over again.
Thursday, October 12, 2017
Monday, October 9, 2017
Brief Review of Book Society under Siege by Zygmunt Bauman
I just finished a good book, written by the sociologist Zygmunt Bauman, called Society under Siege, which in my view, has been one of the best critique against the globalisation process and a defense of the nation states, even if the whole book is written and developed in a heavy and sociological technical language, which in some parts makes it hard to read.
The book per se is relatively recent and has a good scope and sense of what has been the globalisation process worldwide and in a satiresque and ironic way, Bauman the author, refers to our modern society, a "liquid society" one of short terms, one without reflections, determined by the globalising and homogenising forces destroying the nation states. Personally in my view the description of the refugees that Bauman makes has been one of the most acute and ironic I have ever read from any author, and he's extremely right when he makes a similarity between the global refugee population and the global elite, remarking that the refugees in many ways a mirror of the global rich elites, to which i definitely agree 100% percent.
In sum, I think it's a well written book though somewhat hard to read for the non experienced in social sciences and an academic and ironic critique towards the globalisation process, although by no means a defence of the nationalism movements springing nowadays in Europe especially with harsh consequences for the bloc.
Thursday, October 5, 2017
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
Saturday, September 30, 2017
Monday, September 25, 2017
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Myanmar and the Crisis of the Rohingyas
Myanmar, formerly called Burma, once the second most secretive and closed country in Southeast Asia, ruled by the deadly Junta for more than 3 decades, now that it found an open and democratic path to development to the world, governed by the peace prize Aung Suu San Kyi, today faces one of its most critical humanitarian crisis, that is, the issue of the muslim minority Rohingyas, in a country populated by a majority of buddhist, which is today under the global scrutiny and monitor, and could face a backlash in terms of development and investments, of course, if the international community takes sincere and decisive action towards this massive slaughter against this longstanding deprived muslim minority, the Rohingyas.
Ironically, this issue comes in a period when Myanmar has been experiencing its best momentum, having been opened to the world, where many foreign and regional players have important vested interests like China, India, having important international companies in many strategic sectors and fields of development like oil, gas, infrastructure, trade, foods, health been poured millions of dollars, taking advantage of this situation.
Thus, this was right after the time when former President Barack Obama lifted sanctions held against former Burma when it was ruled by the State Development Council ( the Junta as it was commonly known) after it found its democratic path and held its first elections, bringing the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi to power, but who's now facing what might be her toughest task ever and that could be determinant for the future of the country, now already under intense pressure from the international community claiming for a better handling of this situation, which could reach levels of genocide, allegedly sponsored by the government, based on a pure ethnic and religious logic, and already causing displaced people from the rohingyas to neighbouring countries like Bangladesh.
In this sense, in a moment where islamic extremism and radicalism as an added threat, is significantly expanding into southeast asia being reduced and diminished in Syria and Iraq, these actions against the muslims of the Rohingyas might cause the radicalisation of members of this community and their joining to the ranks of ISIS or Al Qaeda, exacerbating the threats already existing in the region in hotspots of islamic radicalism like Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, representing more pressure to the regional stability of the continent, already under an important political and security turmoil, and where the main regional players have many elements and assets at stake, being Myanmar the ultimate scenario where political risks once again are rising, and if this issue of the rohingyas is not properly dealt with, then the promise of a renewed future for the country might be shattered and could become into another Darfur, the humanitarian disaster in Somalia.
Sadly, when we have international leaders calling anything against their interests and political convenience “fake news” like this time the peace prize leader of Myanmar Aung Suu San Kyi referring to the constant news feeds coming out of this crisis related to the rohingyas and no significant and concerted actions taken to overcome this situation, and also when the interested players in the crisis in Myanmar like China and India as well as Australia safeguarding only their business interests, we could expect a black future for the country.
In this sense, it will be interesting to watch and see what the islamic community will do now that Turkey announced to take measures to safeguard the lives of the rohingyas. Are we living some sort of a clash of civilisation that nobody wants to acknowledge?
Monday, September 4, 2017
Monday, August 14, 2017
Book Review: The Oligarchs. Wealth and power in the New Russia
I just want to share here some few excerpts about this extraordinary book i finished recently: The Oligarchs by David E. Hoffman, which in general deals and relates with great details and in a narrative way how a small group of powerful young men came to power in the dying former Soviet Union and wanted to become the rulers of the nascent Russian Federation under a fierce capitalism. Specifically this deals with the story of media tycoons Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Guzinsky; former Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov; economic guru and former advisor Analoty Chubais, mastermind of the massive waves of privatisations in the former USSR; former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and the rather less known former banker Alexander Smolensky, all of them with one common goal: turn former decrepit socialism in the former Soviet Union into a fierce capitals system of free market.
Aside from the separate biographical selection for each one of these oligarchs made by the author, who undoubtedly possess precious information about all this process carried out in Russia, what the reader will take and sense after reading the whole piece is how a definitely critical socio economic process like the privatisation of soviet assets was carried away by this small group, which felt in some ways empowered by the historical circumstances to change radically the destiny of the country, but which in the end, after incurring in many criminal activities since they performed non legal economic activities, political dynamics in the new Russia will be the one to end up this story for these so called oligarchs, with the eruption in the russian political scene by the now president Vladimir Putin.
Definitelty, this is a good book to read, one with a strong historical perspective, for the ones studying and analysing Russia, a book that deals with which was definitely the most sensitive situation in the history of the country in my personal view, since the onset of the Bolshevik Revolution and the communism in the red country. Thumbs up for this piece.
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Monday, July 3, 2017
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
Monday, June 19, 2017
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Sunday, May 14, 2017
Friday, April 21, 2017
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Saturday, March 11, 2017
My experience at the 2017 Hemispheric Security Conference at Florida International University
This week I had a tremendous chance during my visit to the city of Miami, Floirida to attend the 2017 Hemispheric Security Conference organised by the Jack Gordon Institute for Public Policy and the Kimberly Green Latinamerican and Caribbean Center of the Florida International University campus, where many different heavyweight academics, former military officers of the U.S. and experts on political risk from the well renowned consulting firm Eurasia Group were giving their assessments about the current geopolitical situation in Latinamerica and the best ways for the current Trump administration at the White House to deal with the ongoing shifting geopolitical landscape in the region, which is interestingly changing and shifting towards the right specter of the political scene.
It is relevant to point out the most relevant issues that were touched by the different panelists during the whole day of conferences and dissertations, which were a wide array of them like for example the critical regional security implications of the situation in Venezuela; also the issue of the crisis going on in the south american giant Brazil touched by the director of Latin America desk at Eurasia Group, Phd Joao Augusto de Castro Neves, who stressed out the grave consequences that the phenomenon of corruption will leave in Brazil and its economy and its projection in the world.
At the same time, the sensitive issue of the influence of external actors like Russia, China and Iran was discussed and how the U.S. should deal with this in order to cope and coexist with this existing reality and where the overall conclusion and assessment was that the current Trump administration should not displace the presence of these power players in the region but rather learn to live and cooperate in order not to lose more grounds in this critical area of the world.
And also other critical and important aspects of the region were touched like the situation of the criminal gangs in El Salvador and the phenomenon of corruption and financial threats and how the White House has been fighting against this and the use of irregular channels for money laundering, drug smuggling by terrorist organisations like ISIS and Al Qaeda and other irregular groups and governments, being mentioned specifically the accusations impinged on the Vice President of Venezuela, Tarek al Aissami, who is allegedly linked with irregular groups and currently is under the radar of the White House.
Overall the event was a tremendous experience both for the panelists and the ideas exposed and the arguments discussed, which were brief and straight to the point of each issue and also a great venue for networking and exchanging ideas on the current geopolitical challenges facing the Trump administration in Latinamerica. Thumbs up to the institutions responsible for this conference and to Florida International University for such a great event.
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Monday, February 6, 2017
Saturday, January 28, 2017
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Saturday, January 14, 2017
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Participation in Wikistrat's Discussion Forum: Pathways for Peace in Syria
From December 20th 2016 and until January 6th 2017 I had the chance to actively participate in a discussion forum hosted and organised by the exclusive crowdsourced consulting firm unique in its style, WIKISTRAT, called Pathways for Peace in Syria, where through a long, exciting and hot debated discussion many views and angles of the longstanding almost 7 years aged war in Syria and the potential ways for peace taking real time news feeds as per the basis of our daily basis discussions and red teaming. Perspectives like the underlying logic of gas and oil pipeline geopolitics, the role of Iran and Syria in the conflict and as potential peace brokers and winners of this conflict, the active role of Turkey and its interests and implications, the similarities with regional cases like Lebanon and possible ways to apply for a political solution in Syria were between the many options discussed through the duration of this discussion, which needs to be replicated in other interactive analytical platforms and follow this example set by WIKISTRAT, in which i have been participating as a Contributing Analyst for the Energy Security Desk, what has been a very enriching analytical and learning experience.
I can only say thumbs up for this initiative and for the many WIKISTRAT has had since its inception since it is so far the best platform for interactive analysis on a wide array of current hot topics ranging from social issues, technological breakthroughs, geopolitics, oil and gas and energy, business new trends, and allows its analysts to keep on learning each day of participation in this platform. Here i want to share the link to the complete discussion on Syria which ended yesterday:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)