Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Saudi Arabia's NEOM


Too much fanfare and media coverage about the NEOM multimillionaire project by Saudi Arabia, in the framework of Plan Vision 2030, but the kingdom needs to solve and assess important critical external threats to its stability and also it needs to assess the issue of the generational change of power and any potential sucession of the throne. Issues like islamic radicalism, Yemen, Iran, Syria seem far from being solved and an ongoing threat for the country. 


he point is that too much has been discussed and talked about the changes coming to KSA but nothing about thorough political and social changes in the kingdom. And it seems that the Al Sauds are carrying out something similar like China, undergoing and projecting huge economic changes but political establishment remains untouched. And all this in the middle of a geopolitical change of the region with new foreign players  with the power to displace the old and traditional power brokers and decision makers. 

It is true that all whats been carried out in recent years and especially after the times of the Arab Spring and during the time span of the low oil prices that started in 2014 and have been here to stay at least so far (although they lifted up to 60$ due to geopolitical reasons like the Kurdistan crisis) by the GCC states especially by the KSA after King Salman came to the throne and under the especial aegis of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (allegedly the next heir to the throne) is laudable and bring hope for the well being of the people especially the youth, 

But it's also true that the kingdom is in shaky sands and instability and political risks are the main threats to the feasibility of this mega project, which has also created what could be a positive race between the gulf states in terms of development and economic growth and also spurning the rise of renewables something unthinkable for these oil rich countries with large reserves.

Geopolitically speaking, this project which is aligned with the Plan Vision 2030, comes in times of many external political turmoil and battle fronts that the KSA has been playing and deploying forces, like in Yemen (turned into a never ending civil war and a humanitarian catastrophe), an uncertain situation in Syria with a potential winner Bashar Al Assad where allegedly saudis have poured money in backing up the rebels against the Assad regime;

Also an ongoing instability in Iraq, Libya, all this inserted in a general ongoing sectarian strife against Iran and the clash between sunnis and shiias led by these two powers, which altogether coupled with depleted reserves and continuing low oil prices, represent more or less the general picture in which this mega plan has been presented, which might give us a sense and the look of the kingdom portraying a better future for the country, but not giving the full overview of the potential critical outlook to which the kingdom is facing.

Hopefully for the stability of the whole region and the world, this megaproject has a positive impact and the potential to diminish these and other threats for the kingdom.





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