Saudi Game of Thrones

Saudi Game of Thrones as Mohammed bin Salman readies his ascension to the kingdom

Putin visit to Iran and implications

In the recent days, President Putin visited Iran and held a meeting with President Hasan Rouhani, where important strategic regional issues were on the table such as the crisis in Syria, the sectarian strife between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the issue of the referendum in Kurdistan and the potential consequences for Iran, and also where important energy deals were subscribed, of around 30 USD billions with the biggest oil and gas russian tycoons involved like ROSNEFT and GAZPROM. This according to Financial Times: 

Iran and Russia signed a multimillionaire deal on oil and gas

But not everything is sweet and roses between Moscow and Tehran, since its known that both countries have their respective grievances over bordering issues in the central asian region and for the resources in the Caspian Sea, also having Turkey as a competitor for this region, in order to expand their geopolitical influence after the void left by the United States. But it turns out that the threat of islamic extremism has been a uniting element for this triangle of players which have been actively cooperating in mechanisms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. 

Also the meeting between Putin and Rouhani and the signing of the multimillionaire deal in the energy field shows full support and intention of Russia to Iran under the prospect of reinserting the sanctions by the Trump administration to Tehran, which if it applied, it will give the opportunity for deals and businesses for russian and chinese oil and gas companies in the iranian energy landscape in a moment when Russia is increasingly looking east in terms of searching for alternatives to its gas and oil supplies being under sanctions in the european markets. Definitely a great opportunity for Russia to become a player in Iran.

At the same time, this visit of President Putin to Tehran comes just weeks after the King Salman’s historic visit to Moscow during the Russian Energy Week and the OPEC non OPEC meeting, reflecting the goal of the Kremlin to become the next player and power broker in the Middle East and the Gulf region and a mediator between Riyadh and Tehran in the growing tensions between sunnis and shiites across the region, consequently filling the void left as well by Washington. 

Interestingly enough, both players Moscow and Tehran also stated their plans to ditch off the US dollar and create new financial strategies like for example creating their new official platforms of bitcoins in order to curb and reduce the impact of the sanctions by the White House and the EU, reaching the bitcoin high levels of $7200 per bitcoin recently. In this regard, according to Zero Hedge, Iran might be on the path to developing its platform for bitcoin launching. 

Iran is preparing platform for bitcoing adoption.

Also, its worth noting, that this comes days after the meeting between Mr Erdogan of Turkey and Hasan Rouhani in Iran and the recent meeting between authorities of Iraq and Saudi Arabia, showing how important the role of Russia has become and how fast the geopolitical dynamics are moving in the region, specifically centered around the issues of Syria, the Kurdistan future and the saudi iranian quest for preponderance and influence and the role Moscow is playing, which was traditionally played by the U.S. 

In terms of energy, especially when it comes to natural gas, this meeting has a strategic relevance and it always has since it deals with the top natural gas producers and reserves in the world and also nuclear heavyweights, and the dynamics between Moscow and Tehran will always be a key determining factor for the energy geopolitics in Central Asia, China and the european markets in a broader context, in a moment when the U.S. is trying importantly to become a LNG (liquified natural gas) exporter and also of oil especially to Europe, so this meeting is of extreme importance for the geopolitics of energy, not only in the eurasian context but in a global sense. 

Saudi Arabia's NEOM

Too much fanfare and media coverage about the NEOM multimillionaire project by Saudi Arabia, in the framework of Plan Vision 2030, but the kingdom needs to solve and assess important critical external threats to its stability and also it needs to assess the issue of the generational change of power and any potential sucession of the throne. Issues like islamic radicalism, Yemen, Iran, Syria seem far from being solved and an ongoing threat for the country. 

he point is that too much has been discussed and talked about the changes coming to KSA but nothing about thorough political and social changes in the kingdom. And it seems that the Al Sauds are carrying out something similar like China, undergoing and projecting huge economic changes but political establishment remains untouched. And all this in the middle of a geopolitical change of the region with new foreign players  with the power to displace the old and traditional power brokers and decision makers. 

It is true that all whats been carried out in recent years and especially after the times of the Arab Spring and during the time span of the low oil prices that started in 2014 and have been here to stay at least so far (although they lifted up to 60$ due to geopolitical reasons like the Kurdistan crisis) by the GCC states especially by the KSA after King Salman came to the throne and under the especial aegis of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (allegedly the next heir to the throne) is laudable and bring hope for the well being of the people especially the youth, 

But it's also true that the kingdom is in shaky sands and instability and political risks are the main threats to the feasibility of this mega project, which has also created what could be a positive race between the gulf states in terms of development and economic growth and also spurning the rise of renewables something unthinkable for these oil rich countries with large reserves.

Geopolitically speaking, this project which is aligned with the Plan Vision 2030, comes in times of many external political turmoil and battle fronts that the KSA has been playing and deploying forces, like in Yemen (turned into a never ending civil war and a humanitarian catastrophe), an uncertain situation in Syria with a potential winner Bashar Al Assad where allegedly saudis have poured money in backing up the rebels against the Assad regime;

Also an ongoing instability in Iraq, Libya, all this inserted in a general ongoing sectarian strife against Iran and the clash between sunnis and shiias led by these two powers, which altogether coupled with depleted reserves and continuing low oil prices, represent more or less the general picture in which this mega plan has been presented, which might give us a sense and the look of the kingdom portraying a better future for the country, but not giving the full overview of the potential critical outlook to which the kingdom is facing.

Hopefully for the stability of the whole region and the world, this megaproject has a positive impact and the potential to diminish these and other threats for the kingdom.