Friday, December 6, 2019
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Sunday, June 23, 2019
Has Venezuela's crisis reached an exhaustion point?
After the euphoria at the start of 2019 with the events unfolded by the assumption of the interim presidency by Juan Guaido on his charge as President of the opposition controlled National Assembly alleging the usurpation of power by Nicolas Maduro after last year's fraudulent elections in a strategy ostensibly visible backed by the Trump administration's most hawkish foreign policy operators ( John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio and VP Pence) who altogether developed a frenzy twitter campaign almost on a daily basis and even speculating about a potential armed intervention by U.S. forces to remove Maduro (remember all options are on the table? ), and with failure after failure by the Guaido team to capitalise this massive support not only from the U.S. but also from countries in South America, the EU and the global media emphatic attention day after day, week after week and month after month.
But now it seems that the Venezuela crisis has reached a political dead end with Maduro still holding power and Guaido seemingly disoriented and having lost a significant part of his political support and momentum, and even lost the appeal of global media as recent corruption cases and allegations against Guaido in Cucuta seemed to finally diminish any credibility on him, giving the government a tactic victory although not a definitive one, but for the interest of Maduro, the issue seems to lost its euphoria for now, especially for the White House and Brussels, with the country mired in uncertainties, a deepening economic and social crisis and an opposition lost in a sea of contradictions, accusations of corruption (even if the Bolivarian Revolution has been by large the most corrupted political era of Venezuela) and without any potent and significant positive exit or outcome to solve this deep crisis.
And yes, there's actually an exhaustion not only for global media, for Washington and the Trump administration (going from Trump seemingly pointing against Bolton high and false expectancy to topple Maduro in few weeks to other discrepancies in his foreign policy team and lack of coherence and synchronisation not just for Venezuela but for other hotspots like Iran, trade war with China, Mexico, Iraq, etc) but also for South American governments, who have demonstrated some double standards and hypocrisy in dealing with the Venezuelan crisis not being tough enough and also now applying more severe immigration measures against desperate venezuelan people trying to make a better life in the countries of the region in what has become the most serious humanitarian crisis in years in Latin America, and overall the exhaustion has become even more entrenched in the venezuelan society and the people still remaining and betting for the country, many counting still with a US backed intervention but also feverishly anti opposition and anti socialist but at the same time tired and hopeless for any short term solution.
The overall point is that with other hotspots erupting for the radar of the White House such as Iran and China trade issues, with the EU always struggling within its own political and geopolitical contradictions especially vis a vis Russia, a key ally of Maduro, with ongoing social and economic crisis brewing in countries of South America (where in many country members of the Lima Group the left threatens to make a comeback sooner than later due to poor performances of current rightist governments), for now but not in the long term Venezuela might have lost some appeal for global attention of the media and politically speaking, which Maduro seems to be exploiting smartly and will continue to do so as long as to gain more time and tighten his grip on power.
But based on the fact that Venezuela still holds the largest oil reserve in the world and other important strategic resources and minerals, for its highly geostrategic relevance for the Caribbean basin, the South American region and the U.S., Venezuela will always represent a pivotal geopolitical spot and its politica dynamics whenever any sudden event unfolds, it will draw attention again, but this will absolutely depend on the appearance of new and fresh leadership that can attain and reach solid and viable long term solutions and not just opportunistic murky deals, all this in order to get the country back again on the path to democracy, stability and economic prosperity and make it the model for the region it once was.
Thursday, May 30, 2019
Friday, May 24, 2019
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Thursday, April 4, 2019
Tuesday, April 2, 2019
Monday, March 18, 2019
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Venezuela's Crisis and its implications for the Arab World
Venezuela’s Crisis: Implications for the Arab and Islamic World
Before Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution, led by former president Hugo Chavez, the South American country maintained healthy diplomatic relationships with all Arab and Muslim-majority countries, along with Israel, while as a founding member of OPEC, Venezuela’s ties with the oil-rich states of the Arab/Islamic world developed within the cartel’s framework and with regards to the Persian Gulf, Caracas has long maintained stable and pragmatic relationships with the Arab monarchies, as well as close relations with other states in the Levant largely due to the Syrian and Lebanese diaspora in Venezuela.
Yet after Chavez became president in 1998, Venezuela’s Middle East foreign policy became increasingly ideological with a strong anti-imperialist rhetoric, which the Cuban Revolution inspired and the Havana regime strongly supported, factored heavily into the oil-rich South American state’s growing ties with the Middle East’s “radical” regimes and where leaders such as Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein grew close to Chavez, at least symbolically, during his presidency.
In this sense, besides these autocratic leaders, Chavez’s government also grew supportive of Hamas and Hezbollah and during times of armed conflict between Israel and militant groups in Gaza, Chavez’s strong condemnation of the “Zionist state” led to Israel state becoming an enemy of Venezuela—unsurprisingly contributing to Israel’s decision to side against the current Venezuelan government in favour of the opposition, especially amid this year’s crisis.
Therefore, there have been diverse reports denouncing the presence and activities of Hezbollah, not only in Venezuela (specifically in Margarita and other minor cities of the country), but also in the Southern Cone and the Triple Border between Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil, to help and sustain the Bolivarian Revolution.
And this trend seems to be continuing now with Nicolas Maduro as President, especially leveraging on the influence of a group of Syrians, Lebanese, and Palestinians in diverse strategic sectors like oil, finance, and other business areas, that has been determinant for the Bolivarian Revolution.
This situation has been anchored on links with many well-connected members of these syrian, lebanese communities, now blossoming, with staunch pro-revolutionary stances, especially now under the aegis of the almost super mighty Viceminister of Economy and former Vice president Tarek al Aissami, with alleged links to Hezbollah and currently under U.S. sanctions, who has become the key player for the Arab business community supporting the Maduro administration.
On the other hand, Caracas’ ties with the majority of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states under the Bolivarian Revolution have followed a rather pragmatic and subtle approach and direction, all of them having diplomatic representatives in Venezuela.
To this respect, important is the fact that such ties have mainly developed within the framework of OPEC, but at the same time, within the cartel of oil producers, there have been diverse disagreements between Venezuela and the GCC states with Caracas, tending to side with the more “radical” members (Algeria, Libya, and Iran), over issues of production quotas and prices.
But in recent years, there have been claims, according to local sources, of financial backing from countries like Qatar, to mechanisms sponsored by the Venezuelan government like the crypto currency El Petro, followed by different denounces of gold deals and purchases from an UAE based firm to the Venezuelan central bank during the current political turbulence.
And most recently, along with the newly found ally, Turkey, with which Maduro has stricken diverse deals, especially in the gold sector, along with a proliferation of imports of Turkish products to Venezuela, deriving in the strengthening of strategic relations of Erdogan and Maduro, for many an opportunistic strategy of Erdogan rather than ideological.
But, after the recent political turmoil in Venezuela, in which the president of the opposition controlled National Assembly, Juan Guaido, sworn himself as interim president alleging the usurpation of power by Maduro after the claims of fraud in the past presidential elections in May 2018 and with the full support from the United States, the majority of the EU states, Canada, Israel and most of South America states, things might shift in Venezuela.
And, if there were ever to be the case of a potential removal of Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution, the current geopolitical order in the region would definitely change and tilt towards a more pro U.S. government, which will be aligned also with the interests of the most moderate and conservative regimes in the Gulf and the Arab world and also Israel while in detriment of radical regimes and systems like Iran, along with the important strategic geopolitical gains achieved by Russia and China in the last decade.
This is why what happens in the coming days and weeks in Venezuela will have important geopolitical consequences for the region vis-Ã -vis not only Washington but also for the Middle East, the OPEC and the entire Islamic world and how this could redesign the equilibrium of power in the global oil markets, and also regarding the redefining of its relations with the state of Israel, Turkey and Iran, mainly because of the highly geopolitical and geo-strategic relevance of Venezuela in the Caribbean basin and South America and as the largest non-conventional oil reserve of the world.
Overall, if a regime change is effectively carried out in Venezuela, this could remove the Bolivarian Revolution as a critical hub of Islamic extremism and a close ally of threats for U.S. national security like Iran, North Korea, Hezbollah (recently Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed the activities of this group in Venezuela).
And due to the longstanding position of Venezuela in global oil markets as a predominant voice heard within OPEC, then the outlook for stability for the South and Central American region will improve for the conservative governments in the Middle East and Israel and the geopolitical order will tilt once again on their behalf now with a progressive decay of the leftist regimes in the whole region.
Friday, March 15, 2019
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Friday, February 8, 2019
Thursday, February 7, 2019
My take on Venezuela's political crisis
Venezuela is in a deep state of a crisis of governance today, with an embattled Maduro flexing muscles and decided to hold on tight his grip on power only backed by the top ranks of the armed forces, especially the army and the national guards, while interim president having assumed on the basis of usurpation of power of Nicolas Maduro after alleged fraudulent elections in 2018 May now has with many sectors of the opposition a rather smarter strategy with an international wide backing to displace Maduro from the presidency and call for fresh elections as Washington has toughened sanctions on venezuelan oil exports.
Meanwhile Guaido, the president of the opposition controlled National Assembly and having been sworn in as interim president alleging usurpation of power by Maduro, has aimed to recover CITGO and PDVSA while Russia and China even if showing support for Maduro, it is still uncertain how long both Beijing and Moscow can back a weakened Maduro whose days might be numbered as the population falls into despair and desperation hoping for a quick exit out of the mess Venezuela has turned into while waiting for the humanitarian aid by the US and other countries.
With regards to the outlook for the Venezuelan oil sector and company PDVSA during the ongoing turmoil, the sanctions applied by the Trump administration come to aggravate the already critical crumbling situation of the overall infrastructure, from the oil wells, plants, ports, lack of maintenance of equipments to the refining circuit, provoking longstanding shortages of gasoline, and a downward trend of oil production now around 1.000.000 barrels per day with the potential to fall further below with more personnel and workers to leave due to pressures, political crisis and low wages.
If sanctions continue to venezuelan oil exports to the U.S., main client and most profitable, even if with contingency plans to divert these exports to China and India, while EU sets to reinforce sanctions and block assets of Maduro administration as it recognised overall the Guaido interim presidency, it will be most likely unsustainable for PDVSA to endure this hard situation meanwhile Russia and China might be wary of their support to Maduro and with the only concern to safeguard their investments in Venezuela while Guaido team has reached out to China and stated that their investments wont be harmed and even will be better in doing business with a new administration.
Overall, uncertain outlook for Venezuela, PDVSA and the Maduro administration but also for Guaido to keep its momentum if no quick exit is shown for the Maduro regime while humanitarian aid is blocked from entering Venezuela with many people in need and in precarious situation. Crucial days and weeks for Venezuela as it will face more political turmoil and a potential spiral of economic and social crisis.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
Friday, January 4, 2019
My Assessment of Oil Markets for 2019
2019 will be a year of uncertainties for global oil prices, with current prices showing a bearish indicator under 50$ WTI today after a recent cut deal between OPEC and Russia few weeks ago in OPEC meeting in Vienna, but which so far hasn't caused a spike in oil prices as expected in normal circumstances after an announcement of this sort by the bloc of around 1.000.000 barrels.
This especially due to US shale resilience, whose overall oil production has grown around 2 millions of barrels per day totalling over 11 millions per barrels per day by the end of 2018 and also making it now an exporter of oil and natural gas, while on the other hand, a negative economic outlook for 2019 and trade wars between U.S. and China impacting demand from the EU countries China and India and also the issue of Iran sanction.
In this regard it is important to stress that oil prices on their main indicators, West Texas Intermediate (New York) and Brent (London) along with the price of OPEC basket of oil have suffered more than 20% of losses of their prices in 2017, and now are under 50$ as an average, in general due to the surplus of production of the main and largest producing countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States at least until the last meetings of OPEC and Russia, out of which Russia and Saudi Arabia highly dependent on high levels of oil prices and due to the crash of oil prices, agreed to cut their oil production, although apparently has not been enough to stop this crash in the global markets,
These elements have also been coupled with the turmoil and political risks in the U.S. caused by the Trump administration and his confrontation with the Federal Reserve after recent hikes of interests rates, making the U.S dollar more expensive for oil traders and back-pedalling the demand for oil as this is highly traded in U.S. dollars, even if there have been steps by China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran to use other currencies such as the renminbi, russian ruble for oil trading in order to reduce the dependence on the U.S. dollar for their oil trading and inflows to these respective countries.
So its still uncertain what outlook will be for oil prices and which countries will be winners and losers out of this global quest for oil dominance and preponderance and market share, with a rise of the development of renewable resources and the use of EV all across the globe, with the traditional oil producing powers struggling to maintain their hegemony over the energy landscape with the expansion of other sources of energy, being natural gas the close follower of oil and other renewable sources such as wind, solar, and the expanded use of batteries for electric vehicles.
Geopolitical Risks:
Just as 2018 was a year with important influence of geopolitical and political risks in the oil markets coming from spots such as Libya, Iraq, Saudi Arabia,Yemen, Syria, uncertainties over the future of Mexico’s oil industry with the election of leftist Lopez Obrador and on Brazil’s oil industry with the election of rightist populist Jair Bolsonaro, also related to Venezuela and its oil crisis coupled with many political and economic uncertainties, 2019 will continue to be plenty of these risks, with further impact on the supplies of oil from these countries, having also presidential elections in an important oil country in Africa, Nigeria, and the possibility of presidential elections due to be held in 2018 in Libya with an unsolved issue of security risks to its oil ports and facilities affecting repeatedly its oil output, altogether adding more pressure to the oil markets, along with the dynamics and direction that could take the sanctions against Iran by the Trump administration and the next steps that Iran could take in the Middle East as a retaliation, which might spike oil prices, if there comes a period of shortage of oil, remembering that OPEC is still considering the possibility of another cut if the market continues to be down regarding oil prices which might affect further oil countries.
Also it will be important for the oil markets and regarding geopolitical risks, how will be the developments inside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as if faces important difficulties first regarding the internal divisions especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran over religious and geopolitical struggles in the region, and also between members from the Gulf, as the position of Saudi Arabia grows more aggressive in the region and after the announcement of Qatar to retire from the oil organisation as a result of the blockade by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates against Qatar, all this while also the organisation is lacking internal discipline to comply with cut deals and quotas by its country members,
All this while suddenly Saudi Arabia and Russia have become the main players of this organisation as the bloc is trying to keep control of their traditional market share in order to not fall behind either of the shale oil from the United States or now with the rise of the use of renewable energies, while China has been increasing its oil imports from the Middle East and recently from the United States, while being an active player in countries like Venezuela and other regions of South America in the oil and gas production through companies like China National Petroleum Company, SINOPEC or PETROCHINA.
So 2019 will be a year plenty of geopolitical and political risks in the mentioned areas which might well impact global oil supplies, all the more so if any major disruption of oil exports happens in a large oil producer, like Saudi Arabia, now facing important threats close to its borders in Yemen and over political domestic developments.
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