Sunday, June 23, 2019

Has Venezuela's crisis reached an exhaustion point?


After the euphoria at the start of 2019 with the events unfolded by the assumption of the interim presidency by Juan Guaido on his charge as President of the opposition controlled National Assembly alleging the usurpation of power by Nicolas Maduro after last year's fraudulent elections in a strategy ostensibly visible backed by the Trump administration's most hawkish foreign policy operators ( John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio and VP Pence) who altogether developed a frenzy twitter campaign almost on a daily basis and even speculating about a potential armed intervention by U.S. forces to remove Maduro (remember all options are on the table? ), and with failure after failure by the Guaido team to capitalise this massive support not only from the U.S. but also from countries in South America, the EU and the global media emphatic attention day after day, week after week and month after month.

But now it seems that the Venezuela crisis has reached a political dead end with Maduro still holding power and Guaido seemingly disoriented and having lost a significant part of his political support and momentum, and even lost the appeal of global media as recent corruption cases and allegations against Guaido in Cucuta seemed to finally diminish any credibility on him, giving the government a tactic victory although not a definitive one, but for the interest of Maduro, the issue seems to lost its euphoria for now, especially for the White House and Brussels, with the country mired in uncertainties, a deepening economic and social crisis and an opposition lost in a sea of contradictions, accusations of corruption (even if the Bolivarian Revolution has been by large the most corrupted political era of Venezuela) and without any potent and significant positive exit or outcome to solve this deep crisis. 

And yes, there's actually an exhaustion not only for global media, for Washington and the Trump administration (going from Trump seemingly pointing against Bolton high and false expectancy to topple Maduro in few weeks to other discrepancies in his foreign policy team and lack of coherence and synchronisation not just for Venezuela but for other hotspots like Iran, trade war with China, Mexico, Iraq, etc) but also for South American governments, who have demonstrated some double standards and hypocrisy in dealing with the Venezuelan crisis not being tough enough and also now applying more severe immigration measures against desperate venezuelan people trying to make a better life in the countries of the region in what has become the most serious humanitarian crisis in years in Latin America, and overall the exhaustion has become even more entrenched in the venezuelan society and the people still remaining and betting for the country, many counting still with a US backed intervention but also feverishly anti opposition and anti socialist but at the same time tired and hopeless for any short term solution.


The overall point is that with other hotspots erupting for the radar of the White House such as Iran and China trade issues, with the EU always struggling within its own political and geopolitical contradictions especially vis a vis Russia, a key ally of Maduro, with ongoing social and economic crisis brewing in countries of South America (where in many country members of the Lima Group the left threatens to make a comeback sooner than later due to poor performances of current rightist governments), for now but not in the long term Venezuela might have lost some appeal for global attention of the media and politically speaking, which Maduro seems to be exploiting smartly and will continue to do so as long as to gain more time and tighten his grip on power. 


But based on the fact that Venezuela still holds the largest oil reserve in the world and other important strategic resources and minerals, for its highly geostrategic relevance for the Caribbean basin, the South American region and the U.S., Venezuela will always represent a pivotal geopolitical spot and its politica dynamics whenever any sudden event unfolds, it will draw attention again, but this will absolutely depend on the appearance of new and fresh leadership that can attain and reach solid and viable long term solutions and not just opportunistic murky deals, all this in order to get the country back again on the path to democracy, stability and economic prosperity and make it the model for the region it once was. 

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