India, the next big global player in energy markets.

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/0Ztmh9bpOuo8cGpJR2x0TK/India-to-influence-global-energy-markets-IEA.html

Can Saudi Arabia really break off its dependence of oil?

Can Saudi Arabia really break off its dependence of oil?

ROSNEFT's CEO says OPEC is dead.

Mr Igor Sechin says OPEC near death. Symptom of an ongoing rift between big oil producers.

Oman, oil, geopolitics and great ambitions in the MENA region

The Sultanate of Oman, a rather humble and somewhat stealth tiny state in the Persian (Arabic) Gulf, is setting its own path in the regional dynamics, and it has a positive outlook so far, based mainly on its important oil and gas production growth, just about recently, in the last 2 years, averaging 1 million barrels per day, jumping from previous levels of 650 thousand barrels per day in 2007-2008 approximately. And this has been prompted by a relatively more stable landscape and internal political, economic and socio-religious environment to receive foreign investments, comparatively speaking to the rest of the countries in the Gulf hit hard by the low oil prices, even if now Oman also has been feeling the consequences of this situation, according to many regional information sources on this issue.

In this sense, Oman has been an important exporter of oil to asian markets, where according to the Energy Information Administration latest data, only China by itself accounted for the 70% of omani crude exports, making it its main partner on this field, and also India and Iran represent important clients in this regard. Also, Oman has an important role as gas producer in a region where natural gas only has Qatar as the champion as top reservoir and production. All the previous items have allowed the Sultan Qaboos to project Oman in a considerable and positive way in the decision making process and the regional geopolitics, by participating for example in the recent talks between United States, the EU, Russia and Iran over the nuclear deal, even this participation went somewhat unnoticed. Also, Oman all of a sudden has been called repeatedly by OPEC to participate in their previous meetings based on its exponential production growth and hence giving it more international exposure, where Oman has offered to cooperate actively over the stabilization of markets and prices, offering to cut production sometimes, but with no result whatsoever. But certainly, all this has given Oman a great opportunity to assume a role similar of that assumed before by other tiny states like Qatar, the UAE, with important and outstanding achievements so far.

Now with Iran ascendant in the regional arena and with a sectarian strife against Saudi Arabia scattering all across the MENA and the islamic world, where many countries have experienced clashes between sunnis and shias proxies in Bahrein, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and with no end in sight, Oman certainly has all the positive outlook and seems like an oasis in the middle of the growing and continuing instability in the region, with few political and social risks being one of the most important and crucial the issue of succession since it has been known about the illness of current ruler Sultan Qaboos and all the speculations about who would be his immediate replacement, which could create a vacuum of power and be leveraged by outside powers to expand influence in the country. Even if Oman has not been suffering from the current sectarian strife so far, it has been suspected Iran has been strongly supporting Oman and even signed recently after sanctions were lifted, a deal on LNG supplies to Oman from Iran, being one of the first ones signed by iranian authorities so far. 

So Oman's future intentions and goals based on what it has been doing and carrying out so far will much depend on its political future, the status of its economy and how it will weather out the low oil prices environment and how it will leverage also to develop a "post oil" plan for the coming years, how it will have success to manage the regional dynamics of power and the tremendous shifting alliances, the future of Saudi Arabia, one of its neighbors and its relationship with Iran and important also for its future, how it will handle its relationship with outside powers like China, the U.S, and Russia, with growing ambitions in the Middle East. 

Libya, oil, ISIS and political risks

Libya today constitutes one of the most representative cases when it comes to watch and analyze oil and gas industry under the light of political and security risks. Ever since war and revolution erupted in the country with the intervention of NATO and France that led to the ousting and killing of former libyan leader Gaddafi, instability and chaos has reigned in the country and a fierce clash between different militias and armed private groups have surfaced with the control of the different oil and gas facilities as the main goal of these organizations wanting each one to have their share of the diminishing and declining oil production in the north african country, once in an overall situation of stability under the rule of Gaddafi and now under the threat of total destabilization and balkanization, with no effective unified government but 2 split authorities, between secularism and islamism each one located in the cities of Tripoli and Tobruk. And all this fighting hitting very hard and importantly its one and main source of incomes, its oil production, located at less than 1 million barrels per day.

And dealing with political and security risks regarding the oil industry directly, is linked with the consistent and repeated attacks by the different rebel and warring factions against ports, tanks, sabotaging pipelines, which undoubtedly will be increased now with the insertion in the "libyan landscape" of ISIS, which also aims at controlling the most vital and strategic oil facilities like the Es Sider Port and also the Ras Lanuf pipeline, adding up to the already damaged and destroyed libyan landscape, lacking so far a general consensus between the islamist different factions under the umbrella of Dawn and the support allegedly of Qatar and Turkey, also having the Ansar al Sharia, against the non jihadist groups like the Shield organization and the so called Petrolem Facilities Guard, being the main active groups in this mortal fight, and with ISIS also asserting itself in one of the most prominent oil city, like Sirtre, adding more pressure to all this worsening scenario.

Hence, this is what happens when oil business is affected by myriads and diverse political and security risks and applied to many other global hotspots like Yemen, Sudan, Iraq, etc, but which is not impacting heavily oil prices since even if libyan crude oil is of high quality, low sulphur, and sweet and very demanded in Europe, but which it has not reached high levels of oil production historically even under times of Muammar Gaddafi. Terrorism, sabotaging oil and gas facilities, kidnapping and killing sometimes of oil personnel in offshore and onshore facilities, are the most recurrent incidents regarding political and security risks right now in Libya and is scaring away investments and the remaining companies still operating in the country. 

So, with the perspective of another NATO intervention to root out ISIS off Libya in scenario provoked by the very initial intervention of the US NATO France alliance to topple Gaddafi, after many failed attempts of reaching a consensus on a unity government between the different warring groups, which is now endangering the intentions of the West to intervene once again in the country, then the stakes of growing political risks looks pretty much higher for Libya and its future in the global oil landscape, with important implications for the rest of foreign powers.

Wikistrat and the power of crowdsourced consultancy in geopolitics and strategic analysis

Since not so long there is a internet based crowdsourced consulting firm with worldwide audiences, which is named Wikistrat and is breaking all the paradigms and existing models of consultancies, especially regarding the field of geopolitical analysis, national security, oil, religious issue and in general world affairs current issues that are the most concerning ones for all the people around the world, and which is allowing increasingly growing analysts and people with strong interests in these aforementioned disciplines to have a voice and say and interact all over the world in a 24/7/365 basis. Just enough to have a fast data plan, a good laptop and thats it, as long as one gets to enter its parameter and meet their corporate criteria, once in, a whole new interactive way to analyze different situations in the international landscape, and most importantly, in real time, allowing analysts to grow and experience and see different points of view, through diverse mechanisms used to approach problems and themes set to discuss. If not through open forums, then we have interesting scenario simulations, red team analysis, which is an extraordinary yet innovative way to further approach an issue on different analytical tools, and also through wargaming exercises, which altogether represent new and fresh ways to find solutions and responses to many current world crises unfolding in a direct and very horizontal way. Definitely, Wikistrat has paved a new and alternative way for corporations and companies to develop a consultancy strategy and which is even more important, has shown the power of the people to find solutions for the most acute world problems in a simple yet enriching and plain way.

Iran y Arabia Saudita, capitulo final?

2016 inicia con el inicio de enfrentamiento directo entre las dos mayores potencias regionales del Medio Oriente y del mundo árabe y musulmán, Iran y Arabia Saudita, a raíz de la ejecución de uno de los líderes shiitas mas radicales y contrarios a la monarquía saudita, Sheikh Al Nimr, así como a varios miembros de la minoritaria comunidad shiita residente específicamente en la provincia del Este del Reino de Arabia Saudita, y que desde hace algún tiempo ya han venido manifestandose y protestando en demanda de mayores derechos politicos y civiles a la monarquía de la Casa de Al Saud al mando del recientemente estrenado Rey Salman, quien ha asumido una política exterior agresiva en la region y de reafirmacion del poder saudita frente a su mas acérrimo rival, Iran, en medio de una confrontación sectaria por el control del liderazgo islámico entre las facciones sunnitas y shiitas que representa la mayor amenaza a la estabilidad de la region. 

Ya esta confrontación se ha venido reflejando en diversos escenarios y países como Irak, Libano, Bahrein, Siria, ademas de en Yemen, en donde a traves del financiamiento de grupos y organizaciones  tanto de corte sunnita como shiita, tanto la monarquía saudi como la administración del presidente Rouhani de Iran se han venido enfrentando de forma directa y con saldo cruento de muertos y heridos principalmente de civiles, y que en estos momentos se presenta en su forma mas directa y amenazante  de lo que se pueda conocer hasta los momentos y que inclusive representa una amenaza a la estabilidad casi eterna del Reino de Arabia Saudita, toda vez que la irredenta minoría shiita residente en la denominada Provincia Oriental ha intensificado y aumentado sus acciones de protesta incluso hasta acciones violentas contra la monarquía saudita, y de la cual se ha especulado y sospechado que estarían recibiendo financiamiento por parte de Iran con el fin de acentuar la inestabilidad en el reino mayor productor de petróleo del mundo e incrementar la posibilidad de la caída de la elite de los Al Saud, dinastía gobernante desde hace décadas en el país.

Es importante resaltar en este marco de enfrentamiento que uno de los principales puntos que aumentaron los recelos y la necesidad por parte del rey Salman fue la firma del acuerdo nuclear por parte de Estados Unidos con Iran y la Union Europea ademas de la participación de otros países como Rusia ademas de pequeños actores regionales del Golfo como Oman que han aumentado su participación en la dinámica regional en su rol como mediador en los diversos conflictos que azotan la region mas importante desde el punto de vista geopolítico y geopetrolero a nivel mundial. Ademas para Arabia Saudita existen otros factores como el apoyo irrestricto de Iran a su aliado principal en la region como el Presidente Bashar Al Assad a quien la monarquía busca destronar por cualquier medio por su inclinación religiosa alawita, cercana a la religiosidad shiita, a quien ademas apoya Rusia con quien igualmente Riyadh mantiene serias diferencias al respecto así como en torno a la dinámica del mercado petrolero internacional y contra la cual mantiene desde finales del 2014 una guerra de precios petroleros para afectar su economía así como la de su acérrimo rival, Iran.

Ademas se deben tomar en cuenta los diversos intereses geopolíticos de actores externos como Estados Unidos, Rusia así como de otras potencias regionales como Turquia (aliada estrecha del Reino de Arabia Saudita) así como de Egipto (igualmente con alianzas con el Rey Salman y de quien ha recibido grandes financiamientos) y que han sido determinantes en la dirección que ha tomado esta confrontación de alta sensibilidad y complejidad étnico-religiosa y que podría desembocar en un rediseno de la cartografía regional y con impacto directo en los mercados petroleros internacionales, de ser impactada de forma determinante la producción petrolera tanto en Arabia Saudita como en Iran , donde se teme cualquier posibilidad de acciones o atentados terroristas por parte de grupos extremistas tales como el ISIS (Estado Islamico, de corte sunnita) así como por parte de cualquier otro grupo extremista de corte shiita como el Hezbollah, con mayor presencia en Libano y Siria.

Еn este sentido, y en un escenario de una alta sensibilidad y complejidad religiosa que sirve de caldo de cultivo para un mayor estallido regional, cualquier acción por parte de actores externos corre el riesgo de falta de calculo y análisis de este tipo de complejidad, donde Estados Unidos no se encuentra en su mejor posición en la region, reflejando posturas vacilantes e indecisas y donde sus alianzas tradicionales ya no son las mismas mientras que Rusia, a pesar de que ha venido desplazando a Washington como principal potencia a raíz de sus intervenciones en Siria para destronar a ISIS, corre el riesgo de verse involucrado en una confrontación sectaria de consecuencias incalculables para la region.

Y en cuanto a las implicaciones para la OPEP y el mercado petrolero internacional, por tratarse de los dos principales productores petroleros y de gas natural en el caso de Iran, de continuar agravandose estas tensiones, en el seno de la OPEP se pueden acentuar las divisiones, enfrentamientos y falta de cohesion al momento de toma de decisiones mas de las ya existentes y se puede incluso llegar al escenario de supresión del organismo ya que actualmente existen dos grupos enfrentados por temas de precios y estrategias precisamente liderados por ambos países, mientras que en cuanto a impactos en los precios petroleros, a pesar de que aun no se ha visto impacto del precio del crudo a la alza debido a la existencia de una sobreoferta en los mercados, de llegar a producirse un hecho o acción de grupos terroristas a instalaciones petroleras de envergadura tanto en territorio saudita como iraní causando interrupciones prolongadas de producción a los mercados, podría producirse una escalada en los precios a corto o mediano plazo, pero que hasta los momentos no ha ocurrido esto ultimo.

Visto este panorama donde ya se han conformado alianzas en torno al apoyo a Arabia Saudita, y observandose un posible nuevo escenario de confrontación sectaria, esta vez en Bahrein, donde gobierna una monarquía sunnita cercana a la casa Al Saud y casa de la 5ta Flota de los Estados Unidos, en medio de una mayoría poblacional shiita que han venido sosteniendo protestas desde el inicio de la llamada primavera árabe en demanda de derechos politicos y la salida de la monarquía, ademas de la permanencia de la situación conflictiva en Yemen, donde grupos huthies presuntamente apoyados por Iran buscan el derrocamiento del actual gobierno apoyado por la monarquía saudita así como en Siria, donde no parece existir una solución a esta situación a corto plazo, mientras que en Libia persisten enfrentamientos entre las diversas tribus y grupos por el control del país y con el hecho agravado de ISIS presente en el país y expandiendo su control sobre los principales puertos e instalaciones petroleras, esta confrontación sectario-religiosa amenaza con trastocar de forma definitiva la cartografía y el orden geopolítico y geoestrategico no tan solo del Medio Oriente y el Golfo Persico sino de toda la masa continental eurasiática.