http://www.warandpeace.ru/ru/news/view/85747/
Friday, November 29, 2013
Qatar: a tiny gulf emirate that wants it all...
Eurasian Union vs. European Union. Who will rule Moscow or Brussels?
Since the proposal made by President Putin abput creating an Eurasian Customs Union to involve all the former soviet republics in Central Asia, the Caspian States, it has been made true by concrete facts and agreements on a very fast track basis having involved in its reign almost all of the "stans" as well as the caspian states, which together with other blocs of power lead by Russia such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization threaten to displace and diminish the influence of the European Union, specifically and particularly because of its wealth of natural resources richness, basically oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and rare earths underneath the vast continental shelf of all this territory, which was former under the rule of the Soviet Union, initiative that already has been called by many as a Soviet Union revived. Even though Mr Putin has been insistenly rejecting this proposal as being a new try of recreating a Soviet Union, at least not ideologically speaking under communism reign, it seems that Russia as a nation ideal wants to retake and regain its very continental sphere of influence that once had during the Cold War era. And today has the resources to do so, comparing to the many difficulties which the EU is experiencing (financial crisis, xenophobical groups, organizations and parties on the rise disdaining eurofanatism, and so on) and as well as the waning influence of Washington in North Atlantic relationship, specifically through its well known mechanism of taking control of the Caspian hydrocarbon resources, all of the former at the end blocked by the Kremlin, seducing, courting and in many times forcing countries such as Georgia, Turkmenistan, Moldova, Armenia, Uzbekistan and the likes to back off Washington-EU intentions of falling under EU-NATO influence, having been succesfully done so, having Ukraine its absolute prize. So if well put into perspective, and comparing the European Union status nowadays, and the Eurasian Union-Shanghai Cooperation Organization (which recently Turkey proposed to become full member) dynamics lead by Mr Putin, we can see that if events keep evolving the way they are so far, Eurasian Union not only will displace the European Union as a geopolitical bloc of power, but could displace it in the foreseeable future.
Monday, November 25, 2013
Friday, November 22, 2013
An Arab Spring coming to Saudi Arabia? Maybe...
Think the somehow unthinkable and maybe we will see it sometime soon: an arab spring or maybe winter or any other season coming to the hot and warm deserts of Saudi Arabia, recently threatened by the faulty lines of religious sectarian confrontation between shiias and sunnis/wahhabis/conservatists Islam lead by Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have taken this fight throughout the whole MENA region, with its roots in the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia. Its surprising that almost on a daily basis news about skirmishes, protests by foreign workers and expatriates and by the shiite minority living in the kingdom are building little by little a landscape of what could be a forepicture of instability that could shake the very political floor of the House Al Saud, and if this comes true, the consequences for the world oil markets and prices are going to be unpredictable. Just by imagining Saudi Arabia in a hypothetical Libya or Iraq scenario fragmented or taken over by Al Qaeda is kinda frightening, and if we consider the gradual rapprochement between Iran and the White House, it adds up to this scary process of a undoubtedly change of alliances and power plays in the Persian Gulf and the whole Persian Gulf. Now all the status quo that for decades has been the rule of the monarchies and the different arab countries is all gone, and nothing is for granted. Libya and Irak are the best examples for what could be coming to Saudi Arabia, via Tehran support. Look at what happened in Beirut recently at the Iranian embassy claimed by Al Qaeda. The Shia/Sunni divide is gone mobile and portable in different "theatres of war or scenarios", and definitely will afect one way or the other the arid lands of the Saud clan.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Why Lebanon matters
Now more than ever Lebanon matters. And it matters more than ever before. It matters because it continues to be a buffer zone and a contention state (be it a dysfunctional as it is now) between secularism and religious extremism (call them shiism theocracy, sunni/wahhabi shekidoms and fiefdoms, etc), given that Lebanon keeps itself being a democracy, though still having a so called caretaker government so far, basically because of the intransigent attitude from Hezbollah and the power clashes with Israel and the West, and the relevace of Syria as a key player as well in lebanese internal politics. It matters as well because of the religious tolerance reigning there (having a confesionalist political system for decades long), and it matters much more now that it has a considerable and relevant oil and reserves mainly off shore its coast, which if it has success in designing a coherent strategy to develop all these reserves, could add up to the mediterranean energy hub that can transform the geopolitical landscape in this zone, relaxing a strong world dependence on Persian Gulf oil and gas, specially for the United States and the Western world. But the real reason why Lebanon will matter more in the near future is if the oil and gas incomes will be handled by a secularist state (western leaned) or on the contrary, Hezbollah and other extremist factor will come to grip and take control of the rising oil and gas industry in this country, which could deal a fatal blow to Washington in this area. For now, many foreign investors have decided to move forward with initial steps participating in bidding rounds for blocks and fields off shore, giving hope to lebanese economy for a recovering and to reorganize itself as a country, but if the aforementioned scenario comes to fruition, could threaten all the energy landscape in the Mediterranean. That is why Lebanon matters.
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