Friday, November 22, 2013

An Arab Spring coming to Saudi Arabia? Maybe...

Think the somehow unthinkable and maybe we will see it sometime soon: an arab spring or maybe winter or any other season coming to the hot and warm deserts of Saudi Arabia, recently threatened by the faulty lines of religious sectarian confrontation between shiias and sunnis/wahhabis/conservatists Islam lead by Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have taken this fight throughout the whole MENA region, with its roots in the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia. Its surprising that almost on a daily basis news about skirmishes, protests by foreign workers and expatriates and by the shiite minority living in the kingdom are building little by little a landscape of what could be a forepicture of instability that could shake the very political floor of the House Al Saud, and if this comes true, the consequences for the world oil markets and prices are going to be unpredictable. Just by imagining Saudi Arabia in a hypothetical Libya or Iraq scenario fragmented or taken over by Al Qaeda is kinda frightening, and if we consider the gradual rapprochement between Iran and the White House, it adds up to this scary process of a undoubtedly change of alliances and power plays in the Persian Gulf and the whole Persian Gulf. Now all the status quo that for decades has been the rule of the monarchies and the different arab countries is all gone, and nothing is for granted. Libya and Irak are the best examples for what could be coming to Saudi Arabia, via Tehran support. Look at what happened in Beirut recently at the Iranian embassy claimed by Al Qaeda. The Shia/Sunni divide is gone mobile and portable in different "theatres of war or scenarios", and definitely will afect one way or the other the arid lands of the Saud clan.









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