Consulting on International Energy Geopolitics and Political Risk on Russia, Eurasia and the Middle East
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Why Lebanon matters
Now more than ever Lebanon matters. And it matters more than ever before. It matters because it continues to be a buffer zone and a contention state (be it a dysfunctional as it is now) between secularism and religious extremism (call them shiism theocracy, sunni/wahhabi shekidoms and fiefdoms, etc), given that Lebanon keeps itself being a democracy, though still having a so called caretaker government so far, basically because of the intransigent attitude from Hezbollah and the power clashes with Israel and the West, and the relevace of Syria as a key player as well in lebanese internal politics. It matters as well because of the religious tolerance reigning there (having a confesionalist political system for decades long), and it matters much more now that it has a considerable and relevant oil and reserves mainly off shore its coast, which if it has success in designing a coherent strategy to develop all these reserves, could add up to the mediterranean energy hub that can transform the geopolitical landscape in this zone, relaxing a strong world dependence on Persian Gulf oil and gas, specially for the United States and the Western world. But the real reason why Lebanon will matter more in the near future is if the oil and gas incomes will be handled by a secularist state (western leaned) or on the contrary, Hezbollah and other extremist factor will come to grip and take control of the rising oil and gas industry in this country, which could deal a fatal blow to Washington in this area. For now, many foreign investors have decided to move forward with initial steps participating in bidding rounds for blocks and fields off shore, giving hope to lebanese economy for a recovering and to reorganize itself as a country, but if the aforementioned scenario comes to fruition, could threaten all the energy landscape in the Mediterranean. That is why Lebanon matters.
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