Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Monday, December 15, 2014
Friday, December 12, 2014
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Dangerous eurasian games...
After what happened in Ukraine where apparently Washington and Brussels looked confident as having scored a very strategic goal overthrowing pro russian Yanukovich and installing pro western Petro Poroshenko and all that followed suit winning the latest parliamentary elections, it ostensibly looks as if situation not only in Ukraine (including the ongoing situation of violence in the Donbass, Lugansk and Donetsk where proKremlin factors are not giving any signals of surrendering their sovereignty claims strongly supported by Mr Putin, now there had been dangerous geopolitical maneuverings either by the White House Brussels axis or by the Kremlin taking the rest of the Eurasian landmass as a chess game where the next scenarios have been the Baltic (Estonia, Finland and Sweden have been crying out loud threats by russian navy in their waters), denied consequently by the Kremlin, and having NATO carrying out war games with the Baltic states after these maneouvres. Also Russia has been pushing and supportng strongly independence elements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgian war redux?), giving the fact that Georgia and all what happens there is of russian concern or has been. Most recently every presidential and parliamentary election in Romania and Moldova as the most recent have been closely watched by the EuropeanUnion and the Kremlin where the outcomes are decisive for their both geopolitical intentions. And Turkey wants russian gas too as the President Erdogan will surely sign a gas suppy agreement with Mr Putin, hitting another blow to Washington's intention in the area. And we have Russia signing heavy military and energy alliances with Pakistan (former US ally in combating and fighting Al Qaeda and now courted and seduced by Beijing and Moscow now). And if this was not enough, Moscow flexing muscles in the English Channel and no word by the White House so far, showing that so far and even under strong economic and financial sanctions, Mr Vladimir Putin is consistent with his strategy of at least retain Russian sphere of influence of Eurasia, and the most powerful tool is the Eurasian Union, where Armenia too fell under its magical spell even with the Armenian lobby in Capitol Hill being one of the strongest and most influencer, but not enough to stop this. So it seems that so far the sacrosanctum sanctions towards Russia have not worked to block the Kremlin from attaining its full geopolitical goal. Even the Kremlin recently could luxuriously afford to send surveillance planes to guess where? The Guf of Mexico! Home of the most prominent oil and gas platfoms of the US energy industry, and no strong reply from Washington to this either.
This is why there are some dangeous games unfolding in Eurasia until now, and Russia likely will have the lead in the medium term.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Moldova's Presidential Elections, Energy and Geopolitics
Tomorrow there will be another battle in the quest for Eurasia's geostrategic chessboard supremacy, and this time is up to the tiny Moldova to decide which side will take, either it goes for the European Union or with the Russian Federation, and where it seems likely and probable that the pro european political forces are taking the victory, though nothing is certain. No more important geopolitically speaking than Ukraine or Georgia for Brussels or Moscow ambitions, and with a small population and being one of the least blessed economically country in the european continent, there is one hotspot to be decided as well in the medium term such as the breakaway republic of Transdniestria which is supported by Russia, just like the cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia in Georgia and whats happening now in the Donetsk and Lugansk russian speaking breakaway republics of Ukraine backed by the Kremlin. So this can be a bargaining chip for Mr Putin if the results of this upcoming election turns to Brussels instead of blinking an eye to Moscow. Also Moldova depends highly on gas supplies coming from Russia putting it in a much more compromised position in its relationship either with Brussels or with Moscow. So tomorrow again energy will play a key role in the outcome of this elections, whichever they will be, having Russia under strong pressure on both sides on Western backed progressive sanctions and depressed oil prices hurting russian economy, and undeniably with a weaker position to negotiate now in the eurasian geopolitical chess, and if it Moldova decides to follow the same path of its neighbor Ukraine, the final word will be for the Kremlin. 
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
And after this so awaited OPEC meeting what next?
So much has been said speculated analyzed and overanalyzed about this upcoming meeting in Vienna of the OPEC which has been under full pressure the last weeks blamed for the responsibility of having a progressive low oil prices environment but fundamentally this having been caused by Saudis and the Gulf monarchy states for comercial and geopolitical reasons and one thing even more worrisome and dark for the medium term future for the cartel which is exposing its deep and sometimes irreconcilable divisions and contradictions basically led by the House of Al Saud claiming to represent sunni muslims interests worldwide against minority shiites led by Iran in a struggle that threatens to burn the whole MENA region away through sectarian clashes turning every country with no exception in a scenario battle for religious supremacy that has claimed many lives and this is mainly the reason on why Islam cant be a unified religion with a strong and cohesive hierarchy only for political interests undermining the arab world as a whole and affecting its position in the world economy extrapolating this situation in the opec being this the main reason why no consensus is within reach and why opec from now on wont be a functional organization with a strong and unified goal of defending fair oil prices for producers and exporters and also for allowing foreign interests dictate their goals. The world today is just too modern too flexible and so away from religious divisions of those tearing and destroying the opec now and with non opec countries with full fledged production rates now that it is certainly foreseeable even if not in the short term but in the long run the dissapearance of the Organization of the Petroleum of Exporting Countries as we know it
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Friday, October 17, 2014
Is the Shale Oil Revolution in the US a true reality or just a short lived dream?
A lot has been said, speculated, chanted and so on about the shale oil and shale gas revolution in the United States, which has skyrocketed oil production in the country, specifically coming from Bakken Field in North Dakota, and Eagle Ford and The Permian in Texas, partly due to smart energy policy decisions by Obama administration, which has taken as its flagship reducing foreign oil imports from the Middle East and other volatile regions worldwide, becoming in fact a reality at least for now, raising domestic production to almost 10 MMBPD, ranking among the top 3 oil producing countries in the world along Russia and Saudi Arabia, and so far changing the rules of world oil markets, and prompting as well as revealing a harsh clash of powers and postures within the OPEC over prices, quotas and exposing the drama over who really is the absolute leader of this organization. But talking about the US oil production, it should be taken into consideration certainly reserves and the ratio reserves/production in the country, and in the current environment of a more than bearish oil prices scenario and the break even prices needed to sustain major projects for shale oil production in the US if such a scenario and current situation is here to stay or on the contrary, is a short lived dream for the US in its quest for energy security and self sufficiency. Are the Saudis willing to let this happen, having its long standing ally in the Gulf as a top producer and losing one of its biggest market and thus being this a tremendous game changer in the geopolitics of energy? What about Russia, and the steps that it can possibly take the Kremlin towards this? If the oil price below 80$ per barrel persists at least for a medium term, hardly the most prominent shale oil projects in the US can be sustainable, when one reads news about Iran, Canada talking over quitting prominent infrastructure projects if this landscape keeps rolling. So which is the true strategy here? The Saudis hitting hard against the U.S and Iran for commercial as well as politico-religious goals of supremacy? Or is it a bilateral well coordinated plan by Washington and Riyadh pointing to the destruction of Russia and Iran? Who will be at the end of the day the true winners of the current situation? The OPEC? The White House? Beijing maybe? And even more so, one persistent question if this shale oil revolution will persist and is here to stay, or will be a short-lived dream shattered by the House Al Saud? Only the time will tell.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Oil Prices,Political Risks and OPEC
As the global outcry for continuing plunging of oil prices below 80$ per barrel and with the possibility to go further below, the chances for political risks increase in oil producing countries which rely the most on a 100$ plus barrel of oil, such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran naming the most prominent and facing a considerable internal social pressure. Here of course its shown how the split within OPEC is broadening, exponentially augmented by the sunni-shiite showdown throughout the MENA region lead by Saudi Arabia and Iran, sadly projected into OPEC dynamics affecting other non arab countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador just to say names. So political risks increase this time on the side of oil producing countries, opening the door for potential social upheavals, rifts, in an environment where the affected states possibly could have to cut social expenditures to balance and adjust budgets, as low as oil prices can roll back, which so far is truly uncertain, and hypothetically Saudi Arabia only has the answer as the sole swing producer in the OPEC. One thing is true, and this is that the OPEC will no longer be a unified and coherent oil bloc abiding to their country members interest, and only responding to political selfish interest held by the strongest of its members, Saudi Arabia. So as far as this situation keeps unfolding, showing the OPEC a sad picture, theres the question of this organization traditional pivotal role in world energy markets, if its really necessary to control oil prices, to whom it really responds (to its members, foreign powers like the US or China) and of course if the OPEC really works and adequate in tune with the modern world. Pretty sure that after this situation, rather than being the traditional strong cartel that it used to be, the OPEC could have its own image pretty much damaged, and only because of power plays between saudis and iranians for the control of Islam and the arab world.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Is Russia winning Ukraine too?
For better or worse lovers or haters friends or foes or the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin and Russia, it looks like that similar to what happened in Georgia few years ago, this time too Russia will reassert itself its traditional influence over a divided and not at all politically coherent Ukraine strongly supported and funded by NATO and the US, where just because of a clear lack of a consolidated and unified European position against Russia, the White House even with all the military and economic might and weight can't just simply go it alone to literally destroy Russia even if it so deeply desires to. Huge and massive anti Russian propaganda notwithstanding, all Europe knows that it has to cope and live a love and hate relationship with Russia dependent strongly on Russian gas. And there's no a coherent strategy in the long term for Ukraine to survive as a stable government with Mr Poroshenko on the lead. Why if so the sanctions hadn't been targeted the most important energy Russian companies? Simply because if there's no Russian gas for Europe hardly would there be a substitute from other sources to cover that amount of gas from Russia. And Europe specially Germany and France but also Italy deep down know this so that's why presumably Mr Putin has decided to go all the way and play high stakes on pro Russia rebels in Eastern Ukraine recently no matter the sanctions. So if Russia retain Ukraine this time, Eurasia will be forever for Russia at least in the medium term.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Was Mr Samuel Huntington right after all? Is there a clash of global civilizations in the making?
Boko Haram and its killings on nigerian christian population, the frequent clashes between indian hinduist and muslim populations, shia versus sunnis growing divide and animosity, and now ISIS threats on iraqis christians nestorians, as well as Lebanon becoming again a powder keg for an all out broad inter confessional war between christians and sunnis and shias, all these recent and recurrent events that are shown and often magnified by mainstream media have one thing in common: religion and civilization fault lines breaking apart, where more than energy resources reasons for these conflicts, there´s religious motives also underlying these confrontations and killings. And all these giving relevance, for supporters and haters, to Mr Samuel Huntington´s main and (in)famous political theory of a clash of civilization confronting western values against the eastern and mostly muslim societies. Though this theory was claimed to be by many detractors as racist and inspired by the WASP elements (white anglo saxon protestants) of global powers, and strongly exxagerating the superiority of the West over East in simple words, nowadays, one crucial factor of this theory has proven to be accurate, and is the one of religion, and we have been seeing this sadly on the news recently when talking about previous events i mentioned at the beginning of this post. But what prompted me to think about Mr Huntington right away was when reading the Vatican justified the U.S intervention over Iraq on behalf of iraqi´s christian nestorians minority against the ISIS mass murder of minorities of yezidis and christians, and really is showing that there´s a growing divide between western and eastern societies, even with the expanding reach of internet, social networks and the likes, wheere religious divisions are playing a pivotal role when talking about this. Even though Mr Huntington was criticized and supported at the same time by all ideologies worldwide, one thing is true in our times, religious intolerance at every spot of the world is growing, as well as at the ethnic and nationalities category, and where on the contrary of globalization and borderless world claimed and asked for by many groups, ultranationalism and xenophobia is on the rise specially in Europe aimed mainly at muslim immigration from the Maghreb and other parts of Africa and the Middle East, adding another element to the revival for this clash of civilization of Mr Huntington. But lets see for how long this endure and sustain.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)