BYBLOS CONSULTING analysis on Europe´s political change for The Daily Journalist

http://thedailyjournalist.com/elcafe/will-europe-s-imminent-political-change-help-other-agendas/

Ukraine, Greece, Spain and the future of the European Union

Undoubtedly what the outcomes will be out of the recent negotiations in Minks on Ukraine, Greece out of the eurozone eventually, and the almost certain victory of leftist PODEMOS in Spain is a accurate thermometer of the situation in the European Union just about right now. Brussels is shaking and looking astonished how fragmentation is whats abounding, the left is gaining momentum, and a funny thing is how Greece, almost on the brink of a financial collapse and a laboratory for strange experiments by the IMF, the EU technocrats and the World Bank, now threatens to unleash a domino effect in the Schengen zone, and pointing overtly or not to the Kremlin as its potential partner on financial and geopolitical terms. And also the situation in Ukraine is showing what the EU cannot do because of its inner contradictions and dychotomy of postures vis a vis Washington. Love and hate relationship between Brussels and the White House to say the least. 

And the main reason for this is energy and gas supplies, where after many thought that Russia had its influence waned in terms of gas might in the EU, it turned out it hadnt at all and it has a lot of margin of maneuver, if not, ask the Chinese and the Turks about this. So the certain future of the European Union will be at least of many Europes centered on a pivot country alligned either with Russia or with the United States. Actually, one can see and observe at least 2 to 3 geopolitical europes. No unified Europe at all now, and aside of all this, Germany and France want to play alongside the Russians, out of any question. One hint: energy. No other reliable gas supplies as the ones from russian soil, not from Algeria, not from almost depleted fields from Norway, UK on the North Sea, not even from Libya war torn fields, so they will have to live, whether they want it or not, with Russia as their partner. So the future of Europe will heavily rely on what happens next in Ukraine, Greece and Spain, but also in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. This is just the beginning of the end of the European Union as we know it. 

The Shi´a Nightmare for King Salman of Saudi Arabia

Never in the House of al Saud history and tradition things have looked worse than with the ascension to power of King Salman, and having to live the shi´a nightmare in a daydream. The Houthis in Yemen are claiming gradually more power than ever before, and now wanting a greater role in the army, that is to control weapons and the use of force, as well as controlling strategic sectors of power in this now uncomfortable saudi neighbor to the south. And they look to Iran as an religio-ideological inspiration and source of financial backing. Yeme might not have oil but it wields an enormous geostrategic importance as a transit chokepoint for massive oil and gas flows, and no coincidence is the almost monthly basis blowing and attacks on the Marib pipeline which carries oil to the Red Sea, with a capacity of 200.000 barrels a day by insurgents of the AQAP Yemen chapter, highlighting the geostrategic importance of Yemen for the region. And of course for saudi monarchy. Also, the King Salman will have to deal with the restless shiite minority of the eastern province within saudi soil and which holds the most prominent oil fields throughout the whole country, and who have been holding continuous protests demanding more civil and political rights and freedoms to the House Al Saud, though still small, they are a pretty much a blinking sign that Iran could play a bigger role in this issue against King Salman, given the shia religious inspiration of this minority. And if to this we add the oil role, and the fact this minority settles and dwells on a location full of oil and gas facilites, the landscape turns even darker for the new saudi king. And this arc of instability closes in the shia majority populated Bahrein, where even if massive protests by shias in the wake of the so called arab spring at Pearl Square have been shut, since Bahrein is a very close ally of Saudi monarchy and home to the 5th Fleet of the United States Navy, it doesnt mean this tiny island couldnt become again a breaking point that could ignite the so not wanted turmoil in the very close neighborhood of Saudi´s King Salman, which if with a strong impact, it can garner and give Iran a deep and strategic victory against Saudi Arabia, within this growing and harmfull sunni-shia divide thats crushing the entire arab-islamic world, only for the sake of not so well intentioned leaders of gaining more power and influence. So this can be the entire shi´a nightmare for King Salman of Saudi Arabia, without of course discarding the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the situation of the shiias in Iraq with a strong weight in political decision making in the country. So should we call in the long term this region shiitestan or sunnistan?