Iran´s own geostrategic problem and threat: Khuzestan.

Most people and mainstream media talk and comment about the threats and dangers that pose the shiite minority population in Saudi Arabia´s volatile Eastern Region, home to most prominent and important oil and gas fields, facilities in the kingdom, and ever since the sectarian strife against Iran started going bigger and wider affecting the whole MENA region, and specifically having the shiite inspired houthis revolt against the current yemeni government allegedly backed and financed by the Iranian government in saudi´s very own border and even some times in saudi soil recent events caused even by shiites minority skirmishes and now ISIS suicide attacks in mosques, which are in the first time in years shaking the foundations of the House of Al Saud and the King Salman, and with concrete threats to its own oil and gas fields, which if occurs something with considerable impact like a suicide attack against a refinery, an oil well, a pipeline, this could really affect world oil prices and markets and produce a tremendous game changer in the balance of power in the Middle East. And Iran knows it very well. And Washington, and Moscow and Beijing and the EU. Shiite issue is the biggest threat facing now the Saudi kingdom. 

But what really has not been much talked about is the implications that could have in the medium or long term the role and weight of the Khuzestan region in Iran, where the arab minority living in Iran resides and where the biggest oil and gas reservoirs in the country are located, and what most political, geopolitical and oil markets analysts should be monitoring and analyzing is the results and consequences of any possible threats of  sucide attacks and skirmishes caused and incited by the Saudi kingdom in this geostrategic region for Iran, as another puzzle of this geopolitical sectarian divide that is really threatening to finish and destroy the islamic world and the MENA region political and social relative stability, and for the world oil and gas markets as well. Since the 1920s, tensions on religious and ethnic grounds have often resulted in violence and attempted separatism, including an uprising in 1979, unrest in 2005, bombings in 2005–06 and protests in 2011, drawing much criticism of Iran by international human rights organizations.

Just to imagine a tit for tat game of punch and counter punch against each other iranians and saudis aimed at each other´s troublesome regions (Eastern Province vs. Khuzestan), which could also would serve and fit well as a breeding ground and a cauldron for ISIS, Hezbollah and AQAP (Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula) to unleash an all out war, perfect for foreign players with oil and gas interests trying to reinforce the divide and rule theory and playing to catch as many fishes in a further chaotic situation that could result out of this situation or even worse. This is a framework perfect for the different proxies, guerrillas, armed forces controlled by Tehran and Riyadh to play them off against each other to try to win this sectarian war and become the definitive leader of the islamic world, but with the terrible consequence of destroying the OPEC, and spking the world oil prices up to the 200$ per barrel in a catastrophic scenario, to be not very conservative.

Situacion actual de Arabia Saudita ante amenazas a su estabilidad politica e implicaciones al mercado petrolero global

En días recientes, el Reino de Arabia Saudita ha estado experimentando importantes dificultades en el terreno político, financiero y de seguridad interna, originado principalmente a raíz del inicio de su estrategia desplegada dentro del seno de la OPEP de mantener y aumentar a máxima capacidad su producción petrolera en defensa de su cuota de mercado, marcando de esta forma un punto de inflexión en la estrategia tradicional de recortes conjuntos de producción para defender un nivel de precios beneficiosos para los países productores petroleros, en especial, los que mantienen un nivel de dependencia alta en los precios del crudo. Y esto dentro de una creciente confrontación interreligiosa y sectaria que enfrenta a la monarquía saudita, que se aclama como defensora del Islam sunnita conservador wahhabi, frente a Irán, país líder de la rama shiíta islámica, más radical y contra la postura sunnita de las monarquías del Golfo, alineadas a favor de Estados Unidos.

Al respecto, y tomando en cuenta las actuales cotizaciones de precios petroleros en sus marcadores referenciales, los cuales han descendido aproximadamente más de un 20% desde que Arabia Saudita inició esta estrategia de defensa de cuotas de mercado, y dentro de un complejo escenario geopolítico donde Siria, Irak, Líbano y más recientemente la vecina Yemen, en donde tal vez resida el mayor reto y amenaza para la estabilidad interna y política debido al alzamiento por parte de rebeldes de la rama huthies presuntamente apoyados logística y militarmente por Irán, y en donde ya han activado su presencia grupos extremistas como Al Qaeda y el Estado Islámico (ISIS), los mismos ya han llevado a cabo acciones contra activos militares en la frontera con Arabia saudita, además de atentados contra mezquitas shiitas en territorio saudita por parte del Estado Islámico, han activado todas las alertas por parte de las autoridades de la monarquía del Rey Salman, y del resto del mercado petrolero mundial, ya que existe la posibilidad de que se produzcan acciones terroristas contra instalaciones petroleras como pozos, oleoductos en la zona oriental, de la Provincia Oriental, donde se encuentran las más prominentes instalaciones petroleras y donde reside la minoría shiita en el país, de quienes se sospecha puedan aliarse con rebeldes huthies contra la monarquía para causar una conmoción social y política, con el objetivo último de provocar un cambio de sistema político en el país.

Apreciación: Mientras tanto, a pesar de que Arabia Saudita sigue manteniendo su posición como primer exportador y productor de crudo y 2da reserva de crudo mundial, ya muestra signos de afectación en sus presupuestos para poder seguir manteniendo sus programas sociales y a la población en sus diversos programas de beneficios para así reforzar la prevención de posibles alteraciones del orden público y de revueltas de jóvenes que puedan sentirse atraídos a la ideología del Estado Islámico, y más recientemente, acaba de anunciar que emitirá bonos de deuda pública por $27 mil millones, reforzando más el sentimiento de que la situación financiera no se encuentra en su mejor momento, y donde de igual forma uno de los principales aliados en cuanto a importaciones de crudo, como China, sigue atravesando un período de desaceleración económica, aunado a la prolongada crisis financiera en Europa, reduciendo de esta forma aún más la demanda de crudos y derivados y así los precios, todo esto en medio de una situación volátil en la región del Golfo Pérsico y del Norte de África, y donde Irán se proyecta como la próxima potencia, luego del acuerdo nuclear con Estados Unidos, y que podría agregar mayor crudo a los mercados.

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New poll by Clemens WorldWide on Rising Levels of Political Risks

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Increasing political risks is the trend in the oil and gas industry

Too many diverse faraway spots all across the globe strategic for the world oil and gas production and supplies are undoubtedly experiencing increasing levels of political risks which proves that beyond fundamentals always present in the world energy markets and having the traditional supply and demand movers in the oil and gas prices, political and geopolitical risk is an element that definitely shouldn't be left out of the table and the big picture when it comes down to analyse and determine the direction of the oil and gas industry. 

If we take a look across the worlds most important hotspots like Libya ( where sadly its overall oil production has been plunging to less than 500.000 barrels per day because of ISIS driven instability and the never ending struggle and clashes between 2 up to 3 warring militias and clans fighting to be the formal government and which have taken the whole oil and gas infrastructure as their ultimate prize, thus affecting its industry because of political and security risks) or if we come across the ongoing threat posed by ISIS AL QAEDA over Kurdistan Iraq oil production due to their struggle over controlling the majority of oil wells and refineries in Syria and Parts of Iraq and the even bigger threat of the most prominent oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia like Ghawar posed by some hypothetical shiite led or even ISIS Sunni inspired terrorist attack in the House of Saud's most difficult time ever and if ever accomplished this could make oil prices skyrocket on the basis of a strong psychological impact on the world oil markets to up to 150$ a barrel to say the least, all these previous examples showing that geopolitical and political risks be them internal or international are having a tremendous effect on the behaviour or world energy prices and landscape. Sure there are these and many other examples of this factor like how Nigeria has been strongly affected in its oil industry by the mix of BOKO HARAM and the MEND terrorist attacks against the off shore facilities affecting foreign personnel and its overall production or the cases of FARC attacks against oil pipelines in Colombia somewhat if not stopped soon, this could well represent a political and security threat to the surging and promising Colombian oil production rounding now the 1000000. barrels a day. Also another prominent case is Venezuela, which holds the worlds biggest heavy and extra heavy oil proven reserves at the Orinoco Belt, now it has been experiencing increasing levels of political risks and concerns of further deterioration of economic and financial situation in the country where possibly more foreign companies assets looms ahead and the security overall situation is critical all the actions taken by the State notwithstanding, could backlash and affect future investments so critically needed to fully develop the Orinoco belt reserves and where it's ostensible the presence and existence of political risks and being close to parliamentary elections the upcoming December, crucial for the stability of the status quo of the country. And also in the general southamerican oil and gas dynamics,political instability even if not longstanding is a phenomenon that should be considered in a continent with a strongly promising oil and gas production. And how about prolonged and protracted political turmoil and instability all across the MENA region and Eurasia and Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, where terrorism, piracy in the sealanes and oceans, abrupt regime changes in a wider context home to large oil refineries pipelines power grids, altogether makes enough a perfect mix of increased political and security risk for the oil and gas industry. 

So as long as there exists terrorist groups vying to make money and extort the states, as long as there is inefficient governments and deficient political systems without clear rules of law for investment, there will be enough room for. Political risks in the oil and gas industry to be assessed. So it's not and won't be only a matter of fundamentals but also of geopolitics in the world energy landscape.