Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Iran´s own geostrategic problem and threat: Khuzestan.


Most people and mainstream media talk and comment about the threats and dangers that pose the shiite minority population in Saudi Arabia´s volatile Eastern Region, home to most prominent and important oil and gas fields, facilities in the kingdom, and ever since the sectarian strife against Iran started going bigger and wider affecting the whole MENA region, and specifically having the shiite inspired houthis revolt against the current yemeni government allegedly backed and financed by the Iranian government in saudi´s very own border and even some times in saudi soil recent events caused even by shiites minority skirmishes and now ISIS suicide attacks in mosques, which are in the first time in years shaking the foundations of the House of Al Saud and the King Salman, and with concrete threats to its own oil and gas fields, which if occurs something with considerable impact like a suicide attack against a refinery, an oil well, a pipeline, this could really affect world oil prices and markets and produce a tremendous game changer in the balance of power in the Middle East. And Iran knows it very well. And Washington, and Moscow and Beijing and the EU. Shiite issue is the biggest threat facing now the Saudi kingdom. 



But what really has not been much talked about is the implications that could have in the medium or long term the role and weight of the Khuzestan region in Iran, where the arab minority living in Iran resides and where the biggest oil and gas reservoirs in the country are located, and what most political, geopolitical and oil markets analysts should be monitoring and analyzing is the results and consequences of any possible threats of  sucide attacks and skirmishes caused and incited by the Saudi kingdom in this geostrategic region for Iran, as another puzzle of this geopolitical sectarian divide that is really threatening to finish and destroy the islamic world and the MENA region political and social relative stability, and for the world oil and gas markets as well. Since the 1920s, tensions on religious and ethnic grounds have often resulted in violence and attempted separatism, including an uprising in 1979, unrest in 2005, bombings in 2005–06 and protests in 2011, drawing much criticism of Iran by international human rights organizations.



Just to imagine a tit for tat game of punch and counter punch against each other iranians and saudis aimed at each other´s troublesome regions (Eastern Province vs. Khuzestan), which could also would serve and fit well as a breeding ground and a cauldron for ISIS, Hezbollah and AQAP (Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula) to unleash an all out war, perfect for foreign players with oil and gas interests trying to reinforce the divide and rule theory and playing to catch as many fishes in a further chaotic situation that could result out of this situation or even worse. This is a framework perfect for the different proxies, guerrillas, armed forces controlled by Tehran and Riyadh to play them off against each other to try to win this sectarian war and become the definitive leader of the islamic world, but with the terrible consequence of destroying the OPEC, and spking the world oil prices up to the 200$ per barrel in a catastrophic scenario, to be not very conservative.





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