Most people and mainstream media talk and comment
about the threats and dangers that pose the shiite minority population in Saudi
Arabia´s volatile Eastern Region, home to most prominent and important oil and
gas fields, facilities in the kingdom, and ever since the sectarian strife
against Iran started going bigger and wider affecting the whole MENA region, and
specifically having the shiite inspired houthis revolt against the current
yemeni government allegedly backed and financed by the Iranian government in
saudi´s very own border and even some times in saudi soil recent events caused
even by shiites minority skirmishes and now ISIS suicide attacks in mosques,
which are in the first time in years shaking the foundations of the House of Al
Saud and the King Salman, and with concrete threats to its own oil and gas
fields, which if occurs something with considerable impact like a suicide
attack against a refinery, an oil well, a pipeline, this could really affect
world oil prices and markets and produce a tremendous game changer in the
balance of power in the Middle East. And Iran knows it very well. And
Washington, and Moscow and Beijing and the EU. Shiite issue is the biggest
threat facing now the Saudi kingdom.
But what really has not been much talked about is the
implications that could have in the medium or long term the role and weight of
the Khuzestan region in Iran, where the arab minority living in Iran resides
and where the biggest oil and gas reservoirs in the country are located, and
what most political, geopolitical and oil markets analysts should be monitoring
and analyzing is the results and consequences of any possible threats of
sucide attacks and skirmishes caused and incited by the Saudi kingdom in this
geostrategic region for Iran, as another puzzle of this geopolitical sectarian
divide that is really threatening to finish and destroy the islamic world and
the MENA region political and social relative stability, and for the world oil
and gas markets as well. Since the 1920s, tensions on religious and ethnic
grounds have often resulted in violence and attempted separatism, including an uprising
in 1979, unrest in 2005, bombings in 2005–06 and protests
in 2011, drawing much criticism of Iran by international
human rights organizations.
Just to imagine a tit for tat game of punch and
counter punch against each other iranians and saudis aimed at each other´s
troublesome regions (Eastern Province vs. Khuzestan), which could also would
serve and fit well as a breeding ground and a cauldron for ISIS, Hezbollah and
AQAP (Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula) to unleash an all out war, perfect for foreign
players with oil and gas interests trying to reinforce the divide and rule
theory and playing to catch as many fishes in a further chaotic situation that
could result out of this situation or even worse. This is a framework perfect
for the different proxies, guerrillas, armed forces controlled by Tehran and
Riyadh to play them off against each other to try to win this sectarian war and
become the definitive leader of the islamic world, but with the terrible
consequence of destroying the OPEC, and spking the world oil prices up to the
200$ per barrel in a catastrophic scenario, to be not very conservative.
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