La elección de Donald Trump y sus implicaciones para el mercado petrolero

Se produjo lo que muchos temian y la mayoría de las encuestadoras mas prestigiosas fallaron en pronosticar, la elección del empresario magnate por el Partido Republicano, Donald Trump como el proximo Presidente de Estados Unidos, quien asumirá el mandato el proximo 20 de enero de 2017. Y las reacciones de los mercados globales no se han hecho esperar aunque hasta ahora estos movimientos bursátiles y financieros han sido mas bien positivos y alcistas, mientras que la industria petrolera y en especial en Estados Unidos, ya se han generado especulaciones positivas sobre un nuevo resurgimiento del negocio del shale oil y gas especialmente en el estado de Texas, donde a raíz de la elección de Trump, ya se empiezan a observar movimientos importantes sobre recuperación de puestos de trabajos, aumento de la producción y nuevos descubrimientos de campos, todo ello en un ambiente prolongado de precios del crudo bajos y donde la OPEP sigue sufriendo de una importante fractura interna acusando falta de disciplina y consensos ante la próxima reunion a sostenerse a finales de noviembre para tratar de lograr un recorte de su producción global con el fin de recuperar los precios petroleros que se mantienen promediando los 48$. 

Y es que bajo su lema "Make America great again" (Hagamos America grande otra vez), y luego de haber anunciado lo que serian sus puntos principales en materia de política energética durante su administración en los próximos 4 anos, aun esperando el nombramiento de quien seria su Secretario de Energia (se están manejando nombres de politicos como el ex gobernador del estado petrolero mas importante Texas, Rick Perry, así como el empresario petrolero de Oklahoma, Michael Hamm ademas de otro politico republicano Mitt Romney), se visualiza natural que el Presidente Donald Trump de un nuevo impulso a la producción petrolera de Estados Unidos, reducir aun mas las importaciones de crudo desde países OPEP y no OPEP, reducir los subsidios e inversiones en la producción de energías renovables y verdes como la solar con un auge importante no solo en USA sino en el mundo, así como un probable impulso a la industria del carbon, de cuyos trabajadores, el candidato Trump hizo una de sus banderas cuando se encontraba en campana electoral, así como el polémico punto de sacar a Estados Unidos del Acuerdo de Cambio Climatico de Paris, lo que tendría importantes implicaciones negativas para el tema ambiental y la promoción de las energías renovables a nivel mundial, lo que Donald Trump califica como un pretexto de China para desplazar a Estados Unidos en materia industrial.

En este sentido, se puede esperar entonces que en cuanto a la relación petrolera de Estados Unidos con los principales actores como Rusia, OPEP, Iran, en materia de demanda y exportaciones sea la de mayor competencia en cuanto a un aumento exponencial de la producción petrolera y de gas en hubs importantes como Texas, Dakota, Alaska, mayor numero de exportaciones petroleras y de gas licuado desde USA a países asiáticos y europeos, una importante competencia de la producción de carbon con otro actor de peso en esta categoría como China así como con Rusia, mayor cercanía con Canada y Mexico en materia petrolera, aunque restaria por ver como sera la relación en esta materia con Rusia, país con el cual se ha asociado en varias oportunidades al presidente electo Donald Trump y su mandatario Vladimir Putin. Habra que esperar a que el presidente electo Trump asuma el poder el proximo enero y quien sera el nuevo secretario de Energia, si sera un empresario puro y duro de la industria petrolera o si mas bien Trump se decidira por un politico con capacidad de conciliar intereses empresariales con los intereses de grupos ambientales y de la colectividad en general. 

Coal Market Analysis in the next 5 years. Final work for Coursera's Seminar on Fundamentals of Global Energy Business

Coal Market Analysis in the next 5 years:

Jose Luis Chalhoub

Preview:

Coal has been known as the most damaging source of energy for the environment and highly contaminant, and this is why many efforts have been carried out by especially the OECD nations to reduce their overall consumption and demand in the last years. But still non OECD nations and emerging economies still remain highly consumers of coal for their economic growth, which still remains one of their top source of primer energy for industrial consumption overall. 

Currently, worldwide 30% of total energy demand and over 40% of the electricity generation comes from coal, according as well to the International Energy Agency: 

https://www.iea.org/publications/insights/insightpublications/21stCenturyCoal_FINAL_WEB.pdf

Causes for the decline in reserves of coal: 

In terms of the decline in reserves of coal globally, this happened mainly because of:

Limited investments in technology needed to extract coal and also for its production, at the time due to the impact to the environment, and based on the global commitments made under the umbrella of the Climate Change Agreements. 

Many countries including the top consuming nations like China and India and also the United States have taken steps to reduce carbon emissions, so this has and would have also influence in the demand and supply of coal as a primary energy source, 

Even if coal has been always considered since long time ago as top source of electricity, so much needed in emerging economies and the developing world. 

 Historical market conditions for coal based on supply and demand:

According to the International Energy Agency, coal use started ever since the Industrial Revolution and hence never stopped growing globally, and will be significant in the future, and in this regard, greater efforts are needed by governments and companies to embrace less polluting and more efficient technologies to ensure coal becomes a cleaner source of energy in the decades to come.

In this sense, it turns to be significant that from 2000 to 2012, coal resulted to comprise 46% of total added global primary energy, that is, the amount of global coal supplied was 1520 MTOE of the 3292 MTOE of additional global primary energy in the aforementioned period, and 200 MW/day was the total new coal generation capacity commissioned in the world in 2010 through 2014.

Even if the outlook for coal does not seem to be dwindling down so far, at least not in the next 5 years, due to the increased demand coming from China and India, and also from the United States, the coal industry has been experiencing an important decay in the last 15 years or more, especially from the 1990’s from the supply side, which has been decreasing at a faster pace than the demand.

Based on the ongoing ever stricter environmental regulations being progressively implemented by the EU, the US, in sum, the coal market overall has a long history of supply and demand struggles and definitely we are experiencing one today, when all things related to the environment are being so much subjected to public opinion scrutiny, and when natural gas everyday appears to be the cleanest substitute for coal in terms of electricity generation so far.

Main causes and determinants for increase in demand of coal:

1.) Increased levels of international trade and economic growth specifically in whats been called the emerging markets.

2.) Strategic role of China and India in the demand of coal in the last decade due to their sustained pace of economic growth based on the position played by coal in their respective energy mix.

3.) Since no major and massive technological advancements and breakthroughs are needed to revamp and install new facilities for coal production, then the rate of production of coal will keep up its pace in the next years which will meet the increasing demand from China and India.

4.) According to the International Energy Agency, coal consumption will climb to 4.32 billions of tons of oil equivalent for 2017, and the role of coal in the share of global energy mix will continue to grow in the next decade if no stronger policies are applied, the coal will catch up will oil in terms of demand globally.

Future in the short and medium term for coal in the US and globally: 

But now when we have an election in the US with one candidate Donald Trump, supporting strongly the revival of the coal industry in USA, maybe we could see a resurgence of this source of energy in terms of supplies, that is if Mr Trump gets to win the next presidential elections in November, which could be a boost for coal, with China and India not backing off their demand of coal even if India signed recently the Climate Change Agreement just days ago.

Also the global efforts to find and develop new sources of non renewables energy and also the relevance gained by the natural gas as the substitute of petroleum have in general overshadowed the development of coal as top primary source of energy. 

I would like to share this link, which is about a report done by the World Energy Council about current status of coal worldwide which might be of use for this submission as complimentary reading.https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/WER_2013_1_Coal.pdf. Here is another link as complimentary: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-energy-exchanges-idUSKCN11B1Q8?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter. 

With current oil prices and if they keep this sustained pace, and depending also on the pace and speed of economic growth of countries like China and India, the latter experiencing a higher growth than the latter and its economy based on coal as well, then we could foresee in the next 5 years a rise in the demand of coal and also an increasing incentive for new efforts of exploration and discoveries of new sources of coal to expand the current base of reserves globally, 

But it could happen that these efforts could be undermined if the price of coal rise significantly, and also we will see natural gas as a stronger competitor for coal and with more use as per electricity generator and also cleaner than coal for this end use, which would also contribute to the downsizing of coal reserves and also more efforts by OECD countries especially the ones transitioning to the use of non renewables in Western Europe specifically.

Mosul, Iraq and risks for the oil industry

Recently the 2nd largest city in Iraq, Mosul, has been the new epicentre of fresh violence in the sectarian field between shiites and sunnis where ISIS has been trying to deploy what could be one of its last massive strategy to stay alive in Iraq, Libya and Syria, and where the West has launched an important campaign to root out and eliminate the positions of elements of this radical extremist group, in a country already facing a threat of disintegration between a Kurdistan in the north with an important percentage of iraqi overall production, a sunni central part and a shiite southern part and where all across the country since the 2003 intervention, multiple clashes between sunni and shiite have been going on up until now, just about when Iraq has been stepping up efforts to raise its oil production, in a country which holds the 4th largest oil reserve within the OPEC.

But it looks like that all these positive efforts by Iraqi government to raise its oil production (notwithstanding many previous problems with the Kurdish Regional Government in terms of contracts and blocks offerings by kurdish authorities to foreign companies without permission from Baghdad) might find an important obstacle after the eruption of violence in Mosul and which so far has been affecting even if in a small extent some oil wells which have been burnt by ISIS militants not just in Mosul but also in Kirkuk, a larger oil producing city, this could really if not properly managed hit a blow not just to iraqi oil production but also causing an important impact to world oil prices. And because of this situation, iraqi oil authorities just pledged to OPEC for an exemption of any oil cut deal to be confirmed in November, citing the war on ISIS and the recent situation in Mosul, and after the recent rout Baghdad had with OPEC also due to mishandling of iraqi oil production data by the organisation.

Important to consider the timing of this recent resurgence of violence in Iraq after a period of relatively small stability, but stability after all, and all the linkings and connections with all the situation in Libya and Syria where ISIS has been striving to survive, and also the interests of the many foreign players involved in all the chaotic situation in the MENA region, and where the most important stake holders might seem to be Iran (a key ally of the current shiite government of Iraq) and Saudi Arabia, which is also undergoing important issues in its own soil as well as in the regional level with a war in Yemen which has been importantly draining its state funds pushing to carry out massive economic and financial reforms to prevent a financial collapse in the medium run. 

In this sense, what happens in Mosul in the next days or weeks might be determinant for the future not just for Iraq but also for the entire MENA region, and on this is important to mention an ongoing discussion forum held and sponsored by the crowdsourced consultancy firm WIKISTRAT which pursues to envision and forecast the future of Mosul and Iraq after this sudden eruption of violence and which so far has been discussing many angles and aspects of this current hotspot, showing the importance and relevance of this issue.

The war in Yemen and the threats to one strategic oil global chokepoint: Bab al Mandeb Strait

http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/battle-over-bab-al-mandab-straits

Jordanians protests against natural gas deals with Israel

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/10/14/489059/Jordan-gas-deal-Israel-Amman

Yet another Gulf state facing important political turmoil over ow oil prices and fuel subsidies cuts: Kuwait

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37671913

Russia's probable short lived bear hug with OPEC on oil cuts

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-10-16/russian-pledge-to-back-opec-cuts-probably-won-t-stack-up?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-business

Crude oil production of Oman drops in September 2016

http://timesofoman.com/article/94288

La OPEP: incertidumbre y turbulencia en la geopolitica petrolera global

Del 26 al 28 de Septiembre a se produjo una reunion de carácter consultivo entre diversos miembros del Foro Internacional de Energia que engloba a paises productores y consumidores donde toda la atención de los mercados se centro en el posible anuncio de una decision que finalmente se dio, a raíz de un entendimiento entre los dos miembros mas relevantes de la organización, Arabia Saudita e Iran, de recortar un total de 750 MBD, pero de la que aun no se han afinado detalles técnicos y se esperaría que sea en la próxima reunion ministerial ordinaria en el mes de Noviembre donde sea formalizado el anuncio y su operacionalizacion subsiguiente. 

Asi como tampoco se sabe de la voluntad de otros productores importantes no OPEP de unirse a esta intención de recorte como Rusia, Noruega, Mexico, todo lo anterior en medio de una situación de pugnas y rivalidades internas dentro la organización especialmente entre saudíes e iraníes por lograr el control e influencia religioso geopolítica en el mundo musulmán así como la turbulencia política que se encuentran viviendo cada uno de los paises miembros del bloque que controla el 40% de la producción mundial petrolera actualmente, ademas de controlar alrededor del 60% de las reservas globales de petróleo a escala global, lo que, a pesar de posiciones en contra de la organización y que afirman su irrelevancia actual a la hora de influir en el comportamiento de los precios y los mercados internacionales, aun le otorga a este organismo importancia en la dinámica de la geopolítica petrolera.

'

Cuota de reservas petroleras por la OPEP para finales de 2015

Fuente: Boletin Estadistico de la OPEP 2016

Es bien sabido que la OPEP pero específicamente algunos actores tanto internos como externos han propulsado un cambio radical de su estrategia de pasar de defensa de precios justos para los miembros productores a pasar a una radical defensa y protección de "market share" o cuotas de mercados principalmente defendida por el mayor productor del bloque Arabia Saudita así como sus aliados del denominado Consejo de Cooperacion del Golfo, compuesto por las monarquías emiratos y sultanatos como Kuwait, Emiratos Arabes Unidos, Bahrein y Oman, los cuales tradicionalmente han sido cercanos a las posturas sauditas tanto en el seno de la OPEP como en la dinámica geopolítica de la region, y ademas otros paises se han unido a esta estrategia como Iran pero con la intención de recuperar su propia participación en el mercado luego de un largo periodo de sanciones que afecto notablemente su producción y sus exportaciones petroleras, postura que resulta comprensible basado en razones de interés nacional para Iran en este caso. 

En este sentido, esta estrategia de propiciar una sobre oferta petrolera con el fin de inundar los mercados internacionales desplegada desde 2014 y que sirvió como resorte para esta defensa de mercados causo un descalabro en los precios del crudo, que mas alla de haber afectado a la industria del shale oil y shale gas (petróleo y gas de esquisto) en  Estados Unidos, resulto ser contraproducente para los mismos impulsores de dicho plan, ya que es sabido que en el plano financiero y macroeconómico las cosas no andan bien para Arabia Saudita, Kuwait, Emiratos Arabes Unidos, 

Ademas otros paises afectados por este comportamiento y que ha derivado en medidas generalizadas comunes tales como: recortes de gastos públicos, recortes de subsidios al combustible automotor, jugadas inéditas (o tal vez no?) de iniciar una oferta de acciones por parte de la empresa Saudi Aramco, lanzamiento de planes para diversificación de las economías del golfo pérsico tales como el Plan Vision 2030 donde el actual principe de la corona saudi estaría apuntando a intensificar el desarrollo de la energía solar, entre otras, lo que agregaría mas incertidumbre tanto a la dinámica geopolítica de la region, así como al futuro del petróleo y gas como fuentes de recursos en el Medio Oriente y en los países de la OPEP.

Ya varios países anunciaron sus desacuerdos y desavenencias al finalizar la reunion de la OPEP en el marco del Foro Internacional de Energia, mientras que por ejemplo Nigeria anuncio que estaría exenta de esta medida, Iraq critico el uso de las fuentes secundarias por parte de la OPEP para el manejo y publicación de sus cifras de producción, ademas de otros anuncios previos por parte de Libia en relación a su negativa de unirse a un posible congelamiento o recorte de producción, a sabiendas que necesita de forma urgente levantar su industria petrolera y aumentar sus exportaciones ante la continua crisis e inestabilidad política que atraviesa este país del norte de africa, fuente importante de exportaciones a los mercados europeos conjuntamente con Argelia. 

Inmediatamente posterior al anuncio de la decision de la OPEP y como consecuencia del repunte de los precios ademas de a resiliencia que ha mostrado la producción petrolera en Estados Unidos, la firma Baker Hughes afirmo que el numero de taladros petroleros aumento, lo que proyectaría un nuevo aumento de la producción petrolera por parte de USA, lo que significaría de ser sostenida esta tendencia, que la OPEP en su defensa de cuota de mercado no precisamente estaría interesada en debilitar a la producción del shale oil, sino mas bien facilitar mas entrada de producción norteamericana en el mercado lo que a la larga significaría nuevas caídas de los precios de no producirse un recorte mayor al inicial anunciado de 750 MBD

Numero de taladros activos en Estados Unidos para la semana del 30 de septiembre de 2016

Fuente: Baker Hughes

Para ello necesitaría la OPEP de la cooperación de Rusia en este caso, ante lo cual aparentemente y basado en cifras recientes de su producción, no estaría dispuesto a unirse a este recorte, no generando suficientes esperanzas para un efecto rebote de los precios, y todo esto en medio de un panorama decreciente de la demanda global de crudo principalmente para el 2017, en momentos en que bajo el tema de la intensificación del desarrollo de energías renovables y la disminución del uso de hidrocarburos fósiles principalmente en Europa y Asia, bajo el manto de los compromisos adquiridos bajo la COP 21 de cambio climático y reducción de emisiones de carbon.

Ante todo este panorama, la OPEP se enfrenta a importantes incertidumbres y a elementos que estan atentando contra el mismo derrumbe y desaparicion de la organización, tomando en cuenta el hecho de las grandes desavenencias que existen entre miembros del organismo ya que es sabido que algunos países basan en mayor proporción sus ingresos nacionales que otros de las exportaciones petroleras lo que ha hecho dificil la coordinación y disciplina en el bloque mas alla de las declaraciones formales y el protocolo usual al finalizar cada reunion. 

Sera posible que nos acerquemos al final de esta legendaria organización mas pronto que tarde? Que actores estarían mas interesados en una perdida de relevancia de la OPEP? Rusia o Estados Unidos? Hasta que punto las rivalidades geopolíticas seguirán minando la capacidad decisoria de esta organización? Multiplicidad de preguntas cruciales que resulta necesario seguir analizando sobre el curso de los acontecimientos para tratar de encontrar respuestas sobre un tema de alta importancia geoestrategica y geopolítica en el mercado petrolero internacional. 

The OPEC Game Changer

http://www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/170219-the-opec-game-changer/

OPEC still pumping at full capacity. Will this change after November?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil-survey-idUSKCN1202AV

The Uncertainty of Algeria in the Oil and Gas International Landscape.

Algeria, one of the most relevant natural gas producer and exporter in the OPEC and alternative source of natural gas exports to Europe, is facing one of its most uncertain times regarding its political and security currently, related first with the critical situation of president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and the issue with the succession of his post in case of his failing to continue power, which could raise many struggles between many factions in the political elite, and also having the risk of islamic radicalism gaining and expanding their presence in the country, which could set a repetition to the precedent of the civil war after the victory in elections of the Islamic Salvation Front in the 90's and the crackdown of the military forces to the members of this islamic leaned party, which reflects in many cases all across the MENA countries the continuing tensions between the secular forces solidified and controlled by military elites and the islamic political parties, and where Algeria might not be the exception this time.

In terms of oil and gas production, Algeria has been one of its steady producers and certainly has been hit by the low oil prices ever since 2014 when this period started originally, having european oil and gas companies like REPSOL, ENI as the top actors in the algerian energy landscape, ending the 2015 with a daily production of 1.2 millions of barrels per day, an overall refining capacity of over 650 thousands barrels per day, totalling proven reserves of around 12.2 billions of barrels and of natural gas of 4.500 billions of cubic meters, and having Europe and North America as their main destinations for its exports, according to OPEC's most recent data on Algeria, making this country not just for its energy important characterisation but also for its geopolitically important location a very sensitive spot to have in mind and monitor for Washington but most importantly for the EU's energy security in its constant search for alternative natural gas sources and to reduce its sempiternal addiction and dependence on russian imports, thats why algeria and its political and security situation and its potential outcome is so crucial for Europe. 

And this situation regarding Algeria and the potential dangers of it becoming another some sort of Libya in terms of political and security worsening situation and the growing presence of islamic extremist organisations for the EU, the Maghreb and Washington started just when an Al Qaeda affiliate group led by Mokhar Belmokhtar took expats as hostages in the Tingantourine gas facility near the location of In Amenas, putting the security risks under the radar for the energy industry and especially for the algerian state company SONATRACH and foreign companies like BP with which operates this facility under intense scrutiny, having the potential to expand and make it more recurrent for other types of facilities that could threaten to affect algerian oil and gas exports to Europe in some sort of way, if not properly assessed by the algerian government, just like it has happened with some other cases of terrorist organisations impacting the oil and gas business in Nigeria and the ever worsening situation of political instability in Libya which has practically destroyed its overall oil production to a meager 300 thousands barrels per day. 

Now that the country has been trying to develop a strategy to diversify its economy from its oil and gas dependency with a plan called "the patronage" due to the considerable impact of low oil prices, related mainly to cutting subsidies for the use of fuel and gasolines, and also in changing its sources of energy to renewables just like other countries in the MENA region and within the OPEC have started to do watching how oil prices have diminished their revenues, Algeria definitely faces many important political and security hurdles to keep in mind and considering if it wants to preserve its stability as a country not to run the risk of becoming another failed state like Libya or Iraq or Syria, having also specific foreign players like France and Brussels in general important interests in this country, so its really crucial what the future of Algeria might be in the next 5 years to say the least, facing right now many uncertainties that could add more pressure to the already conflicting and troublesome picture not just of the strained picture and relations within the OPEC which is much to say but for the entire oil and gas international markets.

Nigeria, once again in chaos in its oil industry. Blame the Avengers..

Once again, Nigeria, which was from a long time ago Africa's top oil producer and exporter, is descending into chaos, but this time add to the already problematic scene of religious extremist violence of BOKO HARAM, the coming back of the once called MEND now turbocharged and more arrogant and intransigent than ever "The Avengers" (sounds more like a movie, unfortunately it is not), and has brought a renewed wave of violence and repeated attacks against the most important oil and gas facilities targeting this time especially the ones operated by EXXON and also ENI has been victim of these recent attacks, which has caused a tremendous plunge in nigerian overall oil production, which according to recent data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, in march descended in less than 2 MMBD, to 1.8 MMBD, which could be found in this report: Nigeria oil production plunged to 1.8 MMBD in March 2016. This definitely shows how impacted the nigerian oil industry has been because of these recent surge in attacks from the Avengers. 

These renewed attacks come presumably as a direct consequence of diverse and consecutive measures taken by President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, aimed in general to wash away corruption that has been plaguing Nigeria's oil industry and its state oil company, which is now under restructure process, and also as a consequence of a direct measure taken by Mr Buhari to end contracts to protect oil and gas facilities held by the previous government with militant rebel commanders and cut also payments and stipends to former commanders to avoid any future uprising like the one happening now, which looks like to be more violent and non receding any time soon, after in recent days, the Avenger top officials announced that it was not going to participate in any talks or deals with the government, until its demands were not complied nor dealt with, which in general relate to more oil revenues from the Delta Niger operations and more autonomy for the region, which hardly the Buhari government would abide for these demands, having also the cooperation of the international community by his side to combat and fight the BOKO HARAM and also it would be the possibility to request help to fight against The Avengers.

All these events in Nigeria have caused an important spike in oil prices levels, which in recent days reached new record highs of 50$ in the Brent benchmark, which along with recent outages in Canada due to severe wildfires, show that what happens with the nigerian oil industry it really means something for the world oil market, especially when one knows that the quality of their crude oils are between the best, very much needed and imported by the US, and which unfortunately is running the risk to be totally overtaken by Angola, now ranked as the african top oil producer and exporter to the western markets and also an important supplier to China. Maybe Angola which overcame and experienced a long civil war and insurgency clashes and currently with a flowing and thriving oil industry could teach some lessons and help Nigeria's government to deal with this important troublesome situation. 

And there is two crucial issues to discern or think about in the days and weeks to come, depending on how this situation evolve and if the government of Mr Buhari gets finally a talk with the Avengers, which relate to first of all, the behaviour of the rest of the OPEC members regarding the current situation in Nigeria and its huge energy security problem, since particularly thinking, its not enough to vote for a nigerian to be secretary general of the organisation, Mr Sanusi Berkindo, which could be seen as a consolation prize, but how nigerian lost oil production will be filled? Will there be true solidarity inside the OPEC with its troubled member? It might be a silly and naive question, but it is important to see this issue as well. Or on the contrary, with all this market share craziness and the law of the jungle existing as a rule of law in the bloc, other countries like Angola and the KSA will run to fill nigerian void. And most important of all, if oil production keeps this low, will Mr Buhari request to be out the OPEC similar to the Indonesia case in the past. Only time will tell, and well, of course, based on much of what the Avengers and the Nigerian government do to prevent Nigeria from becoming a net oil importer after being the 1 Africa's oil producer. And also, is there any foreign player benefiting from all this situation? Maybe the private security organisations hired by EXXON, CHEVRON? One could never know for real...

Myanmar and Oil

Sincerely, I am surprised by the impressive quantum leap Myanmar has been given on the news, leasding the rankings in economic growth in Southeast Asia and due to its important natural gas reserves off shore,it has been opening up to the world and poised to be a game changer in world oil geopolitics, and a prize to take between India, China, United States, in terms of which country can have the most important and the biggest shares of their oil blocks and revenues. China, apparently has taken the lead on this regard, being a close partner since the darkest times of the Junta, and still close to it, but now India also is watching close how events play out and pouring huge investments in the oil and gas sector, being Indians very interested in this country. 

But for Washington this will be hard to take and measure and evaluate, since it has got to know and have the wisdom to calibrate its own national interests, and the relationships between Beijing and Delhi and overall how this play out in the geopolitical puzzle of the region. And also, there´s Australia as well, as one of the most important energy players in the pacific region, which could serve well as the bargaining chip between all interested players towards Myanmar energy riches. 

Not to forget that according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates the country, also known as Burma, had 10 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves and produced 421 billion cubic feet of the fuel The reserves are 1.9 percent of known deposits in the Asia Pacific, according to the EIA. So this is why Myanmar could have bigger geopolitical implications for the region than ever thought, now even more so when the issue about the South China Sea between China and Washington is surfacing again, and which holds huge and massive hydrocarbon reserves.

India, the next big global player in energy markets.

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/0Ztmh9bpOuo8cGpJR2x0TK/India-to-influence-global-energy-markets-IEA.html

Can Saudi Arabia really break off its dependence of oil?

Can Saudi Arabia really break off its dependence of oil?

ROSNEFT's CEO says OPEC is dead.

Mr Igor Sechin says OPEC near death. Symptom of an ongoing rift between big oil producers.

Oman, oil, geopolitics and great ambitions in the MENA region

The Sultanate of Oman, a rather humble and somewhat stealth tiny state in the Persian (Arabic) Gulf, is setting its own path in the regional dynamics, and it has a positive outlook so far, based mainly on its important oil and gas production growth, just about recently, in the last 2 years, averaging 1 million barrels per day, jumping from previous levels of 650 thousand barrels per day in 2007-2008 approximately. And this has been prompted by a relatively more stable landscape and internal political, economic and socio-religious environment to receive foreign investments, comparatively speaking to the rest of the countries in the Gulf hit hard by the low oil prices, even if now Oman also has been feeling the consequences of this situation, according to many regional information sources on this issue.

In this sense, Oman has been an important exporter of oil to asian markets, where according to the Energy Information Administration latest data, only China by itself accounted for the 70% of omani crude exports, making it its main partner on this field, and also India and Iran represent important clients in this regard. Also, Oman has an important role as gas producer in a region where natural gas only has Qatar as the champion as top reservoir and production. All the previous items have allowed the Sultan Qaboos to project Oman in a considerable and positive way in the decision making process and the regional geopolitics, by participating for example in the recent talks between United States, the EU, Russia and Iran over the nuclear deal, even this participation went somewhat unnoticed. Also, Oman all of a sudden has been called repeatedly by OPEC to participate in their previous meetings based on its exponential production growth and hence giving it more international exposure, where Oman has offered to cooperate actively over the stabilization of markets and prices, offering to cut production sometimes, but with no result whatsoever. But certainly, all this has given Oman a great opportunity to assume a role similar of that assumed before by other tiny states like Qatar, the UAE, with important and outstanding achievements so far.

Now with Iran ascendant in the regional arena and with a sectarian strife against Saudi Arabia scattering all across the MENA and the islamic world, where many countries have experienced clashes between sunnis and shias proxies in Bahrein, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and with no end in sight, Oman certainly has all the positive outlook and seems like an oasis in the middle of the growing and continuing instability in the region, with few political and social risks being one of the most important and crucial the issue of succession since it has been known about the illness of current ruler Sultan Qaboos and all the speculations about who would be his immediate replacement, which could create a vacuum of power and be leveraged by outside powers to expand influence in the country. Even if Oman has not been suffering from the current sectarian strife so far, it has been suspected Iran has been strongly supporting Oman and even signed recently after sanctions were lifted, a deal on LNG supplies to Oman from Iran, being one of the first ones signed by iranian authorities so far. 

So Oman's future intentions and goals based on what it has been doing and carrying out so far will much depend on its political future, the status of its economy and how it will weather out the low oil prices environment and how it will leverage also to develop a "post oil" plan for the coming years, how it will have success to manage the regional dynamics of power and the tremendous shifting alliances, the future of Saudi Arabia, one of its neighbors and its relationship with Iran and important also for its future, how it will handle its relationship with outside powers like China, the U.S, and Russia, with growing ambitions in the Middle East. 

Libya, oil, ISIS and political risks

Libya today constitutes one of the most representative cases when it comes to watch and analyze oil and gas industry under the light of political and security risks. Ever since war and revolution erupted in the country with the intervention of NATO and France that led to the ousting and killing of former libyan leader Gaddafi, instability and chaos has reigned in the country and a fierce clash between different militias and armed private groups have surfaced with the control of the different oil and gas facilities as the main goal of these organizations wanting each one to have their share of the diminishing and declining oil production in the north african country, once in an overall situation of stability under the rule of Gaddafi and now under the threat of total destabilization and balkanization, with no effective unified government but 2 split authorities, between secularism and islamism each one located in the cities of Tripoli and Tobruk. And all this fighting hitting very hard and importantly its one and main source of incomes, its oil production, located at less than 1 million barrels per day.

And dealing with political and security risks regarding the oil industry directly, is linked with the consistent and repeated attacks by the different rebel and warring factions against ports, tanks, sabotaging pipelines, which undoubtedly will be increased now with the insertion in the "libyan landscape" of ISIS, which also aims at controlling the most vital and strategic oil facilities like the Es Sider Port and also the Ras Lanuf pipeline, adding up to the already damaged and destroyed libyan landscape, lacking so far a general consensus between the islamist different factions under the umbrella of Dawn and the support allegedly of Qatar and Turkey, also having the Ansar al Sharia, against the non jihadist groups like the Shield organization and the so called Petrolem Facilities Guard, being the main active groups in this mortal fight, and with ISIS also asserting itself in one of the most prominent oil city, like Sirtre, adding more pressure to all this worsening scenario.

Hence, this is what happens when oil business is affected by myriads and diverse political and security risks and applied to many other global hotspots like Yemen, Sudan, Iraq, etc, but which is not impacting heavily oil prices since even if libyan crude oil is of high quality, low sulphur, and sweet and very demanded in Europe, but which it has not reached high levels of oil production historically even under times of Muammar Gaddafi. Terrorism, sabotaging oil and gas facilities, kidnapping and killing sometimes of oil personnel in offshore and onshore facilities, are the most recurrent incidents regarding political and security risks right now in Libya and is scaring away investments and the remaining companies still operating in the country. 

So, with the perspective of another NATO intervention to root out ISIS off Libya in scenario provoked by the very initial intervention of the US NATO France alliance to topple Gaddafi, after many failed attempts of reaching a consensus on a unity government between the different warring groups, which is now endangering the intentions of the West to intervene once again in the country, then the stakes of growing political risks looks pretty much higher for Libya and its future in the global oil landscape, with important implications for the rest of foreign powers.

Wikistrat and the power of crowdsourced consultancy in geopolitics and strategic analysis

Since not so long there is a internet based crowdsourced consulting firm with worldwide audiences, which is named Wikistrat and is breaking all the paradigms and existing models of consultancies, especially regarding the field of geopolitical analysis, national security, oil, religious issue and in general world affairs current issues that are the most concerning ones for all the people around the world, and which is allowing increasingly growing analysts and people with strong interests in these aforementioned disciplines to have a voice and say and interact all over the world in a 24/7/365 basis. Just enough to have a fast data plan, a good laptop and thats it, as long as one gets to enter its parameter and meet their corporate criteria, once in, a whole new interactive way to analyze different situations in the international landscape, and most importantly, in real time, allowing analysts to grow and experience and see different points of view, through diverse mechanisms used to approach problems and themes set to discuss. If not through open forums, then we have interesting scenario simulations, red team analysis, which is an extraordinary yet innovative way to further approach an issue on different analytical tools, and also through wargaming exercises, which altogether represent new and fresh ways to find solutions and responses to many current world crises unfolding in a direct and very horizontal way. Definitely, Wikistrat has paved a new and alternative way for corporations and companies to develop a consultancy strategy and which is even more important, has shown the power of the people to find solutions for the most acute world problems in a simple yet enriching and plain way.

Iran y Arabia Saudita, capitulo final?

2016 inicia con el inicio de enfrentamiento directo entre las dos mayores potencias regionales del Medio Oriente y del mundo árabe y musulmán, Iran y Arabia Saudita, a raíz de la ejecución de uno de los líderes shiitas mas radicales y contrarios a la monarquía saudita, Sheikh Al Nimr, así como a varios miembros de la minoritaria comunidad shiita residente específicamente en la provincia del Este del Reino de Arabia Saudita, y que desde hace algún tiempo ya han venido manifestandose y protestando en demanda de mayores derechos politicos y civiles a la monarquía de la Casa de Al Saud al mando del recientemente estrenado Rey Salman, quien ha asumido una política exterior agresiva en la region y de reafirmacion del poder saudita frente a su mas acérrimo rival, Iran, en medio de una confrontación sectaria por el control del liderazgo islámico entre las facciones sunnitas y shiitas que representa la mayor amenaza a la estabilidad de la region. 

Ya esta confrontación se ha venido reflejando en diversos escenarios y países como Irak, Libano, Bahrein, Siria, ademas de en Yemen, en donde a traves del financiamiento de grupos y organizaciones  tanto de corte sunnita como shiita, tanto la monarquía saudi como la administración del presidente Rouhani de Iran se han venido enfrentando de forma directa y con saldo cruento de muertos y heridos principalmente de civiles, y que en estos momentos se presenta en su forma mas directa y amenazante  de lo que se pueda conocer hasta los momentos y que inclusive representa una amenaza a la estabilidad casi eterna del Reino de Arabia Saudita, toda vez que la irredenta minoría shiita residente en la denominada Provincia Oriental ha intensificado y aumentado sus acciones de protesta incluso hasta acciones violentas contra la monarquía saudita, y de la cual se ha especulado y sospechado que estarían recibiendo financiamiento por parte de Iran con el fin de acentuar la inestabilidad en el reino mayor productor de petróleo del mundo e incrementar la posibilidad de la caída de la elite de los Al Saud, dinastía gobernante desde hace décadas en el país.

Es importante resaltar en este marco de enfrentamiento que uno de los principales puntos que aumentaron los recelos y la necesidad por parte del rey Salman fue la firma del acuerdo nuclear por parte de Estados Unidos con Iran y la Union Europea ademas de la participación de otros países como Rusia ademas de pequeños actores regionales del Golfo como Oman que han aumentado su participación en la dinámica regional en su rol como mediador en los diversos conflictos que azotan la region mas importante desde el punto de vista geopolítico y geopetrolero a nivel mundial. Ademas para Arabia Saudita existen otros factores como el apoyo irrestricto de Iran a su aliado principal en la region como el Presidente Bashar Al Assad a quien la monarquía busca destronar por cualquier medio por su inclinación religiosa alawita, cercana a la religiosidad shiita, a quien ademas apoya Rusia con quien igualmente Riyadh mantiene serias diferencias al respecto así como en torno a la dinámica del mercado petrolero internacional y contra la cual mantiene desde finales del 2014 una guerra de precios petroleros para afectar su economía así como la de su acérrimo rival, Iran.

Ademas se deben tomar en cuenta los diversos intereses geopolíticos de actores externos como Estados Unidos, Rusia así como de otras potencias regionales como Turquia (aliada estrecha del Reino de Arabia Saudita) así como de Egipto (igualmente con alianzas con el Rey Salman y de quien ha recibido grandes financiamientos) y que han sido determinantes en la dirección que ha tomado esta confrontación de alta sensibilidad y complejidad étnico-religiosa y que podría desembocar en un rediseno de la cartografía regional y con impacto directo en los mercados petroleros internacionales, de ser impactada de forma determinante la producción petrolera tanto en Arabia Saudita como en Iran , donde se teme cualquier posibilidad de acciones o atentados terroristas por parte de grupos extremistas tales como el ISIS (Estado Islamico, de corte sunnita) así como por parte de cualquier otro grupo extremista de corte shiita como el Hezbollah, con mayor presencia en Libano y Siria.

Еn este sentido, y en un escenario de una alta sensibilidad y complejidad religiosa que sirve de caldo de cultivo para un mayor estallido regional, cualquier acción por parte de actores externos corre el riesgo de falta de calculo y análisis de este tipo de complejidad, donde Estados Unidos no se encuentra en su mejor posición en la region, reflejando posturas vacilantes e indecisas y donde sus alianzas tradicionales ya no son las mismas mientras que Rusia, a pesar de que ha venido desplazando a Washington como principal potencia a raíz de sus intervenciones en Siria para destronar a ISIS, corre el riesgo de verse involucrado en una confrontación sectaria de consecuencias incalculables para la region.

Y en cuanto a las implicaciones para la OPEP y el mercado petrolero internacional, por tratarse de los dos principales productores petroleros y de gas natural en el caso de Iran, de continuar agravandose estas tensiones, en el seno de la OPEP se pueden acentuar las divisiones, enfrentamientos y falta de cohesion al momento de toma de decisiones mas de las ya existentes y se puede incluso llegar al escenario de supresión del organismo ya que actualmente existen dos grupos enfrentados por temas de precios y estrategias precisamente liderados por ambos países, mientras que en cuanto a impactos en los precios petroleros, a pesar de que aun no se ha visto impacto del precio del crudo a la alza debido a la existencia de una sobreoferta en los mercados, de llegar a producirse un hecho o acción de grupos terroristas a instalaciones petroleras de envergadura tanto en territorio saudita como iraní causando interrupciones prolongadas de producción a los mercados, podría producirse una escalada en los precios a corto o mediano plazo, pero que hasta los momentos no ha ocurrido esto ultimo.

Visto este panorama donde ya se han conformado alianzas en torno al apoyo a Arabia Saudita, y observandose un posible nuevo escenario de confrontación sectaria, esta vez en Bahrein, donde gobierna una monarquía sunnita cercana a la casa Al Saud y casa de la 5ta Flota de los Estados Unidos, en medio de una mayoría poblacional shiita que han venido sosteniendo protestas desde el inicio de la llamada primavera árabe en demanda de derechos politicos y la salida de la monarquía, ademas de la permanencia de la situación conflictiva en Yemen, donde grupos huthies presuntamente apoyados por Iran buscan el derrocamiento del actual gobierno apoyado por la monarquía saudita así como en Siria, donde no parece existir una solución a esta situación a corto plazo, mientras que en Libia persisten enfrentamientos entre las diversas tribus y grupos por el control del país y con el hecho agravado de ISIS presente en el país y expandiendo su control sobre los principales puertos e instalaciones petroleras, esta confrontación sectario-religiosa amenaza con trastocar de forma definitiva la cartografía y el orden geopolítico y geoestrategico no tan solo del Medio Oriente y el Golfo Persico sino de toda la masa continental eurasiática.