Operation Decisive Storm Infography

Yemen, producing less oil than Denmark, shakes global oil markets.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/why-yemen-that-produces-less-oil-than-denmark-is-roiling-energy-markets-this-morning/?__lsa=0110-f0bf

Implications of Yemen turmoil for oil markets

 

Yemen´s recent descent into chaos and into the brink of civil war within the broader context of sectarian strife and clash for leadership of Islam between Saudi Arabia and Iran, where the Houthis are struggling to take control of the country backed and financed allegedly by Tehran, recently had a slight impact on world oil prices just immediately but not so much to think of Yemen as pivot and geostrategic oil country, because it is not a relevant producer. According to latest figures by the EIA, its total production is around 100.000 barrels per day, and reserves totaling 3 billion of barrels, so within the OPEC and Gulf oil and gas heavyweights, this is less than 1% of total production. On the contrary, the relevance of Yemen to world oil prices and market future behaviour is related to what could happen to Saudi Arabia´s shiite minority in the iconic Eastern Province, holding important oil and gas facilities and industrial complex, who can feel inspired by Houthis further potential advance in Yemen, despite Saudi decission to bomb the country along with Arab League forces and also the United States. If some sort of massive unrest and turmoil backlash for Saudi Kingdom authorities on its own soil, now this can demonstrate the real meaning of whats happening now in Yemen. And this without discarding potential sabotaging actions of members of the Al qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula against oil and gas facilities in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, having also in mind their deep rooted grievances against the gulf conservative western oriented petromonarchies, adding to an already explosive meltingpot in which has turned the general situation in the MENA region, with 4 hotspots in Syria, Libya, Iraq and now in Yemen.

And from the geostrategic point of view, Yemen also borders with the Baab al Mandab Strait, a chokepoint where on a daily basis transit about 3.000.000 barrels a day, which runs the risk at the same time of being sabotaged by some rebel factions of Houthis or AQAP, even if not concrete threats exist, but it could happen as to exert pressure to Saudi and current Yemeni government, which could also count with Iranian blessing, resembling this potential scenario to that of former threats to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. After all, oil and gas pipelines sabotaging and attacks are not unknown in Yemen, where its main oil pipeline, the Marib, has suffered from recurrent attacks coming from rebel actions, although this has not caused a major impact to the world oil market, but in terms of energy security, it absolutely matters. Also for foreign powers, yemeni turmoil serves as some sort of "neo cold war" from where Russia for example, can extract some strategic gains if the Houthis advance further in the country, aggravating threats to the saudi kingdom, a staunch oil and gas rival to Russia, which can maybe think of a possibility of backing the Houthis and Iran in this regard. 

So, the current situation in Yemen, per se it wont have a massive impact to the world oil landscape, but it just gets to influence potential unrest and political instability in Saudi Arabia, connecting also to the Bahrein factor (remember Pearl Square protests by shiites against the Sultan of the country, ally of Saudi Kingdom), then the "shiite arc of instability" this time can set on fire the MENA, and on the very borders of saudi soil, the N°1 oil producer and exporter in the world.

About Le Front National gaining momentum in France and xenophobia growing in Europe

 Le Front National did win a significant second place in last days regional elections in France, led by Marine Le Pen, trailing behind the UMP of Nicolas Sarkozy, which this time took the victory, but representing this a waking call just in the aftermath of Charlie Hebdo´s terror attacks carried out by Muslim immigrants, and in which context this FN second place clearly constitutes a strong warning to french political system and society, which could project growing sentiments and feeling of xenophobia and religious intolerance, and what could in the end be some kind of a beginning of the end of the Agreement of Schengen free movement in the european countries, the reinforcment of nationalism and maybe chauvinistic movements and organizations, in a landscape where already the economic panorama is grim and the euro doesnt show any signal of recovery, in a wider scenario of fragmentation of Europe´s position vis a vis Russia, in terms of energy security, markets, and geopolitics. This second place of Le Front National also is reminiscent of what just happened in Spain and the terror attacks at Madrid´s Atocha train station which just afterwards turned the electorate against the Socialist Party and giving the support to current government of Popular Party´s Mariano Rajoy, as a show of punishment for being weak against immigration and ever growing sentiments of xenophobia. Also, we must wonder and analyze what could mean for Russia the spread and revival of the far right and ultra right wing movements, euroskeptics, parties and organizations, since all these players play in favor of the dissapearance of Europe as a political body, which could bode and fit well into Russia´s desires and intentions in Eurasia as a whole, and interesting to see what the reactions of the White House to all the political dynamics in Europe will be now.

BYBLOS CONSULTING analysis on Europe´s political change for The Daily Journalist

http://thedailyjournalist.com/elcafe/will-europe-s-imminent-political-change-help-other-agendas/

Ukraine, Greece, Spain and the future of the European Union

Undoubtedly what the outcomes will be out of the recent negotiations in Minks on Ukraine, Greece out of the eurozone eventually, and the almost certain victory of leftist PODEMOS in Spain is a accurate thermometer of the situation in the European Union just about right now. Brussels is shaking and looking astonished how fragmentation is whats abounding, the left is gaining momentum, and a funny thing is how Greece, almost on the brink of a financial collapse and a laboratory for strange experiments by the IMF, the EU technocrats and the World Bank, now threatens to unleash a domino effect in the Schengen zone, and pointing overtly or not to the Kremlin as its potential partner on financial and geopolitical terms. And also the situation in Ukraine is showing what the EU cannot do because of its inner contradictions and dychotomy of postures vis a vis Washington. Love and hate relationship between Brussels and the White House to say the least. 

And the main reason for this is energy and gas supplies, where after many thought that Russia had its influence waned in terms of gas might in the EU, it turned out it hadnt at all and it has a lot of margin of maneuver, if not, ask the Chinese and the Turks about this. So the certain future of the European Union will be at least of many Europes centered on a pivot country alligned either with Russia or with the United States. Actually, one can see and observe at least 2 to 3 geopolitical europes. No unified Europe at all now, and aside of all this, Germany and France want to play alongside the Russians, out of any question. One hint: energy. No other reliable gas supplies as the ones from russian soil, not from Algeria, not from almost depleted fields from Norway, UK on the North Sea, not even from Libya war torn fields, so they will have to live, whether they want it or not, with Russia as their partner. So the future of Europe will heavily rely on what happens next in Ukraine, Greece and Spain, but also in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. This is just the beginning of the end of the European Union as we know it. 

The Shi´a Nightmare for King Salman of Saudi Arabia

Never in the House of al Saud history and tradition things have looked worse than with the ascension to power of King Salman, and having to live the shi´a nightmare in a daydream. The Houthis in Yemen are claiming gradually more power than ever before, and now wanting a greater role in the army, that is to control weapons and the use of force, as well as controlling strategic sectors of power in this now uncomfortable saudi neighbor to the south. And they look to Iran as an religio-ideological inspiration and source of financial backing. Yeme might not have oil but it wields an enormous geostrategic importance as a transit chokepoint for massive oil and gas flows, and no coincidence is the almost monthly basis blowing and attacks on the Marib pipeline which carries oil to the Red Sea, with a capacity of 200.000 barrels a day by insurgents of the AQAP Yemen chapter, highlighting the geostrategic importance of Yemen for the region. And of course for saudi monarchy. Also, the King Salman will have to deal with the restless shiite minority of the eastern province within saudi soil and which holds the most prominent oil fields throughout the whole country, and who have been holding continuous protests demanding more civil and political rights and freedoms to the House Al Saud, though still small, they are a pretty much a blinking sign that Iran could play a bigger role in this issue against King Salman, given the shia religious inspiration of this minority. And if to this we add the oil role, and the fact this minority settles and dwells on a location full of oil and gas facilites, the landscape turns even darker for the new saudi king. And this arc of instability closes in the shia majority populated Bahrein, where even if massive protests by shias in the wake of the so called arab spring at Pearl Square have been shut, since Bahrein is a very close ally of Saudi monarchy and home to the 5th Fleet of the United States Navy, it doesnt mean this tiny island couldnt become again a breaking point that could ignite the so not wanted turmoil in the very close neighborhood of Saudi´s King Salman, which if with a strong impact, it can garner and give Iran a deep and strategic victory against Saudi Arabia, within this growing and harmfull sunni-shia divide thats crushing the entire arab-islamic world, only for the sake of not so well intentioned leaders of gaining more power and influence. So this can be the entire shi´a nightmare for King Salman of Saudi Arabia, without of course discarding the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the situation of the shiias in Iraq with a strong weight in political decision making in the country. So should we call in the long term this region shiitestan or sunnistan?