Monday, July 28, 2014
Friday, July 25, 2014
On Libya, political risks and the importance of oil security
What´s been going on in Libya and its political uncertainty affecting oil supplies security to global oil markets is a heavy symptom and meaningful of what oil security at implies and what political risks have got to do with it. At this stance, political risks come closely linked to the clashes of numerous militias fighting for control of oil ports, refineries, tanks, wells and each one of them claim control of their chunk of oil production and of course want to have access to oil exports revenues, a lot like whats going on in Iraq with ISIS trying to control oil facilites and trading revenues of iraqi oil production. The fact that current lybian government is practically non functional and lacking of strong coercive mechanisms to fight against militias, clans and tribes long after the demise and death of former colonel and head of state Muammar Al Gaddafi shows high levels of political risks as well, and as long as this situation keeps going on and on in the long run, with no veritable and practical solution in sight, these risks could reach higher levels since no strong government and state is available to get in control of the situation and seize total hold of libya´s oil production, which needless to say, currently is below the 1000000 barrels a day, being this situation one of the main concerns within OPEC global output and exports, along with that of Iraq and of course Nigeria. Then comes energy facilities security, which right now is close to none in Libya´s landscape, and if even things havent reached nigeria or iraq wise in terms of pipelines sabotaging, or major incidents causing forces majeures, and total shut down of oil production, there´s permanent threat to foreign personnel working in libyan soil, protracted fighting between militias, and the situation is pretty far from normal now. Pretty much sure there are powerful interests interested in that this status quo keeps holding for libya, since it supplies a considerable portion of the european energy market, and of course there´s the industrial-military complex ever stance towards keeping the flame of conflicts worldwide to nurture this billionaire business. So instability, political risks and energy insecurity is what really has Libya in the medium term, and so far, none in the OPEC, nor the country members of the Arab League or the African Union nor the global oil landscape seems much interested in defusing this flame.
Monday, July 21, 2014
Oil and Political Risks in Venezuela
As in every world oil hotspot plagued with a myriad of political
risks, Venezuela is not an exception of this situation. Political risk
is to be taken seriously into account when it comes to the oil and
business in Venezuela, where political uncertainties reign and PDVSA
Petróleo de Venezuela, national oil company, is and has been always at
the heart of the political struggle between the Bolivarian Revolution
and the opposition groups, being the ultimate and main goal to retain
since oil income accounts for more than 80% of the Venezuela total GDP.
In every election and every decisive political momentum, the whole
national oil circuit enters and activates contingency plans and is
always the target for hypothetical actions of sabotage mainly by
opposition groups to inflict the most damage possible to the government
heavily dependent on PDVSA. Since the 2002 major oil strike targeted at
overthrowing former Chavez's government organized by his opponents
inside PDVSA politics and the political situation influences the
national oil life in Venezuela. This is why when a different election
takes place in the country, the main concern for foreign investors be
them Russian Chinese Iránians is the hypothetical political direction
the country could take in case of any non existent Bolivarian
Revolution, a scenario so far not in sight. Of course there are many
other kind of risks such as financial ones (the future of PDVSA bond
emissions, recurrent credits and loans by foreign partners and banks and
the oil company's ability to honor these debts) operational risks
(accidents and major incidents at refineries which have been very
recurrent in last years) as well as organizational risks ( those related
with the production capacity for PDVSA in the long term, which has been
descending to low record levels, having put all hopes on the Orinoco
Belt of heavy and extra heavy oil the biggest reservoir in the world
requiring massive capital investments and infrastructure) that add up to
the current high levels of political risks surrounding the Venezuela
national oil landscape, even though unlike Iraq, Nigeria, Algeria no
religious and terrorist risks threatens and won't threat PDVSA in the
long term given the high levels of religious tolerance in the country,
in the sense that no record of personnel kidnapping at oil and gas
facilities exists so far. No major strikes affecting the oil and gas
industry have been recurrent in recent years different than those by
labor groups demanding a raise in salaries and improvement of working
conditions, and this is very fragmented since there's one major state
sponsored oil union which in many ways support the government and PDVSA.
One current important risk for Venezuela national oil company is high
corruption levels and the clash of internal groups for controlling the
direction of the Venezuela national oil company, and the strongest and
highest levels of indebtedness due to recurrent loans and credits by
foreign partners and international financial institutions due precisely
to the threatening levels of corruption and social expenditures that
have undermined PDVSA budget for investment in major projects in
exploration and production, revamping of refineries, which is a huge
risk to the sustainability of the energy business in Venezuela. Other
kind of risks is the one strictly linked to the guerrilla warfare in
Colombia, which adds up to oil activities in Venezuelan colombian border
at the south and eastern flank, where in many cases Venezuelan oil
workers have been under threat by members of the FARC, as well as
because of repeated attacks on colombian oil pipelines these have
consequences on Venezuelan eastern border resulting in oil spills, and
the ever present situation of oil smuggling from Venezuela to Colombia (
where a liter of gasoline is sold approximately at 20 to 30 times the
price in Venezuela, known for having the cheapest gasoline worlwide). So
in spite of these arguments, Venezuela national oil company falls under
the national security realm and constitutes a top national priority
having strong links with Venezuela armed forces to support its
protection and security, given the high levels of political and other
types of risks existing in PDVSA. So for investors, even if the
situation is not as bad and unclear as in countries such as Nigeria,
Libya, Algeria, Iraq in terms of political and operational risks,
Venezuela as it holds the massive oil reservoirs in the world of
unconventionals, suffers as well of high levels of political risk,
since energy and powerpolitics have always been inextricably linked.
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Análisis de Estrategias por parte de Estados Unidos por la primacía en el Mercado Petrolero Internacional
Desde meses recientes, la administración del
Presidente Barack Obama, a través del Departamento de Energía y las mayores
empresas petroleras norteamericanas como EXXON, CONOCO y CHEVRON, han estado
desplegando estrategias con el fin de lograr el control de las exportaciones
petroleras y del gas natural, para poder alcanzar una disminución progresiva de
los precios del crudo en el mercado global, reducir a niveles considerables la
influencia y el peso de la
Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) y de
actores como Rusia, para minar su influencia en los suministros de gas hacia
Europa, tomando como punto clave los acontecimientos en Ucrania, y con base en
la presunta ventaja competitiva que le ha otorgado un aumento significativo de
la producción interna en marcado en las formaciones de shale gas (gas de
esquisto) y shale oil (petróleo de esquisto). Y con base a esto, y como
mecanismo para inundar el mercado petrolero de mayor producción, existe hoy en
día una fuerte pugna entre los grandes grupos de presión e interés petrolero
(lobbys) y el gobierno federal con el fin de levantar una prohibición existente
desde el año de 1975 a
las exportaciones petroleras desde Estados Unidos con el fin de convertir a
este país en exportador neto de gas y petróleo.
Actualmente, la producción de Estados Unidos se
mantiene en niveles superiores a los 8 MMBD (millones de barriles diarios), y
donde diversos medios internacionales especializados se han encargado de dar
por sentado la supremacía de este país en cuanto a producción de gas y petróleo
por encima de Arabia Saudita y Rusia, actualmente en los primeros lugares en
este renglón, y que en razón de la estrategia de incentivos a la reducción del
consumo energético y un cambio en su patrón de consumo hacia el gas y el carbón
impulsado por la administración Obama, además del enfoque a la producción
interna y el deslinde progresivo de las importaciones tradicionales de países
como Arabia Saudita, Venezuela y el viraje en este sentido hacia países como
Canadá y México, han reforzado la imagen de Estados Unidos como un país a punto
de alcanzar la autosuficiencia energética, todo ello con el fin de reducir la
influencia de actores tradicionales como la OPEP y Rusia en el escenario energético
internacional. En este sentido, no es casualidad que la inestabilidad política,
sectaria y religiosa se haya apoderado de varios de los países miembros de la OPEP (casos Irak, Nigeria,
Libia, y con amenazas latentes de que Arabia Saudita también se vea sometida a
este tipo de acciones contra la monarquía), tomando en cuenta las amenazas que
en anteriores oportunidades hayan lanzado la ex candidata a la presidencia Hillary
Clinton de acabar con la OPEP
si hubiese llegado a alcanzar el poder. Pero, de igual forma, la estrategia de
desplazar a la OPEP
aún se mantiene intacta, aún con una administración distinta en el poder en la
Casa Blanca, ya que esta política exterior
responde es a intereses del conglomerado industrial petrolero y militar con
grandes vinculaciones en Washington y los centros de poder en Estados Unidos.
Por otra parte, dentro de esta
macroestrategia por parte de los sectores más radicales y mayoritariamente
republicanos en el Congreso norteamericano, se encuentra otra arma como lo es
el de la liberación progresiva de petróleo de su denominada Reserva
Estratégica, que contiene aproximadamente 800 millones de barriles, y que fue
creada para momentos de emergencia y de interrupción en el suministro petrolero
mundial, y que siempre se considera una carta en el momento de la toma de
decisiones en materia petrolera por parte de la
Casa Blanca, y que de igual forma ha sido
parte de importantes controversias y diatribas políticas en el seno de los
centros de poder en este país. Este tipo de mecanismos se han tomado en consideración
con el fin de aumentar producción global, presionar los precios a la baja, para
que de esta forma se mantenga un ambiente de precios bajos lo suficiente como
impactar a la economía y los ingresos de países considerados rivales de Estados
Unidos como Rusia, Venezuela, mientras que existe además la conveniencia de que
se mantenga la latencia de potenciales inestabilidades en zonas petroleras y
conflicto de baja intensidad con el fin de que no se produzca un descenso
abrupto de los precios petroleros que impacten de forma significativa los
ingresos de las principales empresas multinacionales que les permita mantener
proyectos y nuevas inversiones en este renglón, para de esta forma evitar y
prolongar una hipotética transición hacia fuentes alternas de hidrocarburos
como el gas natural, donde en esta parte Rusia pasa a ser un jugador clave y
con supremacía, además de otros como Qatar, Trinidad Tobago, Venezuela. Todo
esto forma parte de la influencia psicológica en el comportamiento de los
precios con relación a los conflictos y la conveniencia de mantener cierta
latencia al respecto, además del importante negocio de las armas y el
denominado complejo industrial militar, con considerable presencia de empresas
norteamericanas en este renglón.
Al respecto, Estados
Unidos tendría entonces como objetivos estratégicos claros tanto a Rusia como a
la OPEP,
propiciar además el surgimiento de actores aliados en el escenario
internacional petrolero como el caso de México (donde se lleva a cabo una
importante reforma energética con connotaciones privatizadoras claras que
concentran la atención de la Casa Blanca)
además de Canadá (tercera reserva de petróleo no convencional del mundo y con
el cual se está a punto de firmar la concreción de la construcción del oleoducto
KEYSTONE que transportaría directamente crudo desde territorio canadiense hacia
Texas y otros estados norteamericanos), mantener la estrategia en la región del
Golfo Pérsico del “divide y vencerás”, propiciando guerras sectarias y
religiosas en todos los países de la zona para posteriormente apropiarse de las
zonas con mayores reservas y producción petrolera (por ejemplo el caso del
Kurdistán iraquí en el norte de Irak donde se encuentran las mayores reservas y
que actualmente ha oficializado su petición de autonomía), además de evitar la
cohesión permanente en el seno de la
OPEP en momentos de ajustes y decisiones de mercado y precios
(es conocida la división entre las monarquías conservadoras con fuerte
tendencia hacia Washington y los países menos propensos a esta tendencia como
Venezuela, Ecuador, entre otros), mientras que con respecto a Rusia, a mediano
plazo, la estrategia consiste en desplazar a Rusia como suplidor mayoritario de
gas natural a través del levantamiento definitivo de la prohibición a las
exportaciones de gas desde Estados Unidos e inundar el mercado europeo de gas
desde territorio norteamericano, bloquear y cercar progresivamente a Rusia a
través de alianzas energéticas y militares con las ex repúblicas soviéticas
para de esta manera restar influencia y margen de maniobra al Estado ruso en
Europa. Todo esto frente a una pérdida considerable de presencia que había
experimentado las empresas norteamericanas y el gobierno norteamericano en la
geopolítica energética global contra el avance y expansión global de forma
agresiva por parte de Rusia, China a través de la conformación de bloques como
el BRICS, despliegue de estrategias diversas como la transición hacia un
sistema monetario distinto al dólar, principalmente en el comercio petrolero
internacional, que ha motivado esta nueva estrategia norteamericana en materia
petrolera, y con implicaciones para Venezuela a largo plazo.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
And there comes the BRICS boys....
On the ocassion of the 6th Summit of the BRICS countries held in Fortalesa, Brazil, this geopolitical alter bloc leaves the impression of a more empowered, enhanced and reinforced group, with newer and heavier proposals, for this time, in creating a counterpunch to the International Monetary Fund with an initial fund of $50 billions and to found an energy common association to enhance cooperation between its members, having Russia, Brazil and China as their strongest partners in this field. This time, with the White House entangled in such conflicting areas and with no clear goals such as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and with a lack of coherence in its foreign policy, the BRICS look stronger, with much more coordination, with a unified vision of the world, and having definitely a common purpose of easing a transition to a multipolar system of many world powers instead of a unipolar one (which is by the way reaching to its very end soon). Many steps have been taken or in the best case proposed by many BRICS countries such as for example Russia, trying to change the world currency and the international oil trading from US dollars to a different currency or a basket of currencies, alongside with China. Russia, facing a some kind of a rehearsal of economic sanctions have stepped hard to disengage from the US leaned organization system in the financial and technological sector such as implanting and establishing its very own GPS system (they already have GLONASS, a genuine russian global positioning system), plus the Kremlin is making moves to expel VISA and MASTERCARD definitely from the russian financial system, etc, which shows that this time is for real that the BRICS with, say Russia at its head, will alter the geopolitical world lanscape in a short time. Take for example, which countries and companies, if taken together, are taking the lead in the oil and gas context. Where the former seven sisters EXXON, CHEVRON, CONOCO, BP are selling out assets, facilities and shares in countries like Iraq, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, Brazil, we have the ROSNEFTS, the CNPCS, the PETROCHINAS, PETROBRAS, ONGC, LUKOIL expanding and moving aggresively buying and buying more assets and having larger chunks of the world oil participation, former belonging to the former seven sisters. One very example of this strategic changing geopolitics is the purchase made by ROSNEFT of the MORGAN STANLEY oil trading unit in the US, waiting for its final approval in the White House. I mean, this is very serious, proving that no longer the system is White House oriented. The point here is that between the BRICS members all things related to coordination, understanding, harmony, unification and common goals is kept for many years, and to not let things happen as for example to the OPEC (its no secret the huge abysm and political and religious differences between their members), and if this is taken into consideration, well the BRICS could be the founding stone of a new multipolar era this time for real.
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