Friday, July 25, 2014

On Libya, political risks and the importance of oil security



What´s been going on in Libya and its political uncertainty affecting oil supplies security to global oil markets is a heavy symptom and meaningful of what oil security at implies and what political risks have got to do with it. At this stance, political risks come closely linked to the clashes of numerous militias fighting for control of oil ports, refineries, tanks, wells and each one of them claim control of their chunk of oil production and of course want to have access to oil exports revenues, a lot like whats going on in Iraq with ISIS trying to control oil facilites and trading revenues of iraqi oil production. The fact that current lybian government is practically non functional and lacking of strong coercive mechanisms to fight against militias, clans and tribes long after the demise and death of former colonel and head of state Muammar Al Gaddafi shows high levels of political risks as well, and as long as this situation keeps going on and on in the long run, with no veritable and practical solution in sight, these risks could reach higher levels since no strong government and state is available to get in control of the situation and seize total hold of libya´s oil production, which needless to say, currently is below the 1000000 barrels a day, being this situation one of the main concerns within OPEC global output and exports, along with that of Iraq and of course Nigeria. Then comes energy facilities security, which right now is close to none in Libya´s landscape, and if even things havent reached nigeria or iraq wise in terms of pipelines sabotaging, or major incidents causing forces majeures, and total shut down of oil production, there´s permanent threat to foreign personnel working in libyan soil, protracted fighting between militias, and the situation is pretty far from normal now. Pretty much sure there are powerful interests interested in that this status quo keeps holding for libya, since it supplies a considerable portion of the european energy market, and of course there´s the industrial-military complex ever stance towards keeping the flame of conflicts worldwide to nurture this billionaire business. So instability, political risks and energy insecurity is what really has Libya in the medium term, and so far, none in the OPEC, nor the country members of the Arab League or the African Union nor the global oil landscape seems much interested in defusing this flame.

















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