Monday, May 26, 2014

Some comments on the Ukraine presidential elections

Yesterday were held the presidential elections in Ukraine, where businessman Mr Petro Poroshenko beat the rest of the contenders even a Mrs Tymochenko, who in another time could have won in a landslide victory, but these are different times in Ukraine. With Mr Poroshenko´s political leaning, pro-european, it shouldn´t be odd that Ukraine might look forward to join the bloc sometime soon, which was expected, although nothing is clear so far in terms of what governance and political stability could look like in Ukraine, given the myriad of political factors and interests at stake, and of course the stance of this new government towards Russia, Washington and Brussels. Ukraine is too important for Washington, Moscow and Brussels to let it loose just for the sake of loosing it, and very important geostrategically speaking, so instead of struggle and confrontation between the Kremlin, Brussels and the White House, there could be agreements for ukraine´s future, its sovereignty notwithstanding and selfdetermination. The most crucial thing for Ukraine´s new president to settle just about now is eastern ukraine status in the short and medium term (Donetsk and Lugansk) and what will be Russia´s final position towards them, and to reach a final agreement between Kiev and Moscow over gas prices and debts to GAZPROM, given Europe´s hold onto this standoff for its gas imports from Russia. Lets face it: Russia and Europe are inextricably linked on this matter, even though Moscow is making steps to lessen this dependency on european markets strengthening its energy relationship with China, but for this relationship to endure and to last the situation on Ukraine must be settled on peacefull terms by all parties interested. And one important geopolitical thing is that even if Washington tries too and very hard to penetrate european gas markets by loosening its regulations over natgas exports, it lags very far behind Russia and other clients to supply Europe with the natural gas it needs, specially Ukraine and the rest of eastern european countries, so attached to russian gas exports for decades since the Soviet Union era. So this election in Ukraine has a very special importance for the future of Europe as a whole, and i could say, even more so  important than the European Parliamentary Elections held simultaneously yesterday, in pure geopolitical and commercial terms to foresee the future of Europe and Russia in the long term.

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