Friday, May 16, 2014

Turkey as a perfect example of political risk

Seems that Turkey has reached a tipping point, after a longstanding era of growth and political stability as an example for the EU, amidst a general landscape of shambles in the european economy and instability across Europe in recent years. Now its time for Turkey to experience a period of continuous political risks, first was when the turkish lira experienced a weakening that showed that the emerging markets are too under threat, then protests by citizens in Istambul against prime minister Erdogan for alleged corruption, and now the scandal for the death of more than 200 miners which has inflamed anger against Primer Erdogan raising the level of political risk for this country, geopolitically relevant in Eurasia, bridge between european and asian culture, longing to be an energy hub as transit point for gas supplies, traditional ally for the West but now trying to assert itself as an independent regional power in the region, just like Mr Brzezinski pointed out in his famous book The Grand Chessboard. But things look quite different for Turkey at least in the shortest of the terms, where protests and riots are the most recurrent news in global mainstream media recently, and something really relevant that has to be considered is that Mr Erdogan wanted to set Turkey aside from Washington aegis under a moderate political islam umbrella, which might have triggered these rare period of instability and political risks that could activate and maybe bring back the military rule in a country where this has been in the past the rule and not the exception. We might be in front of a turkish spring on the making if things continue to keep this pace and rythm, in a geopolitical region like Eurasia which the great powers seems to want to put in continuos chaos to redraw borders and control natural resources such as gas and oil from the Caspian Sea. Thats why Turkey looks like a perfect example of a political risked country now.




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